Mark Dayton: Career Placeholder

Once Democrat Mark Dayton’s political career comes to an end, he will—no doubt—be hailed in certain quarters as a colossus:  as consequential a figure as Cicero or Bismarck.

His record (to date) as an electoral politician stands at a pedestrian 3 wins and 2 losses.  Upon closer examination, a clear pattern emerges.

Every few years—1982, 1990, 1998, 2000, and 2008—the wealthy department store heir could be counted on to offer his famous family name and a considerable chunk of his personal fortune to taking back a seat held by a Republican.

Until 2014, each time he had previously succeeded he declined to run for re-election.  In 1990, he took the post of state auditor from then incoming Republican Gov. Arne Carlson.  In 1994, he did not run for re-election, and the seat fell to then-Republican Judi Dutcher.

In 2000, he defeated incumbent Republican Rod Grams for a seat in the U.S. Senate.   After a widely panned term (cf. Time magazine:  “Mark Dayton: The Blunderer”), Dayton declined to run for re-election, clearing the way for up-and-coming Democrat Amy Klobuchar.

So as the end of Dayton’s first term came into sight, it was widely assumed by political insiders, particularly on the left side of the political spectrum, that Dayton would step aside for the next big thing in state Democrat politics.  Even as Dayton began his run for a second term, the rumors persisted that he would drop out at some strategic point—after the caucuses, after the endorsement—to pave the way for a hand-picked successor who would avoid a bruising intra-party battle.

When those scenarios didn’t pan out, the talk naturally turned to more fantastic notions:  that he would stand down early in a second term to make way for his chief of staff/Lt. Governor.  How such loose talk so quickly became conventional wisdom—hailed by insiders as a desirable outcome—betrays an underlying contempt for the current holder of the office.

It’s as if those on the inside believe that career placeholder Dayton has gone back on some imagined deal:  he was merely supposed to keep a seat warm for the next one in line, and he has the ingratitude to want to stick around.

If Dayton achieves something he has never done before—get re-elected—and he follows through on his promise to serve—look for rocky days ahead.  The intra-party succession battle began a year ago, and will now rage on.