Gilmore and Glahn Now on TCNT Podcast Network

John and I have moved our weekly podcast, Gilmore and Glahn, to the AM1130 Twin Cities News Talk Podcast Network.  Our shows can be found here.

Gruber’s MNsure Work

So it turns out that controversial Obamacare consultant Jonathan Gruber worked his well-paid magic here in the North Star State.  Gruber was hired in Minnesota in 2011 by the controversial former head of MNsure, April Todd-Malmlov.  The contract Gruber signed with the Dayton Administration totaled $329,000, and resulted in a 60-page report and a 25-page 2013 update.

The quality and quantity of the work hardly seem worth a third of a million dollars of taxpayer money.  But it’s the conclusions that he reached that seem laughable after a year of MNsure operation.  Here’s a few for your consideration:

·         “The Exchange will enroll roughly 1.3 million persons” (Update, page 3)

·         “There will be little effect on employer sponsored coverage.”   (Update, p. 25)

·         “[T]he majority of individuals in the individual market [will] see a decline in their premiums.”  (Update, page 25)

I wonder if we can still get a refund from Gruber?

The Coming Democrat State Government Shutdown

The Minnesota State Legislature will reconvene in early January, with a newly-minted Republican-majority House of Representatives.  One thing you can pencil in for 2015 is another state government “shutdown.”

Remember back to 2011, the last state budget cycle where Republicans held any power at the state legislature.  Democrat Governor Mark Dayton delayed for two weeks past the end of the fiscal year before accepting the Republican-passed budget.

As the Washington Post reported at the time,

Minnesota’s record-breaking shutdown could be coming to an end. Gov. Mark Dayton (D) has offered to accept the Republican deal put forward on June 30 in exchange for a few conditions.  [Emphasis in the original.]

In the Democrats’ calculus, any time that the government shuts down, Republicans take the blame.  Democrats are the party of government, so therefore, they always want government open.  Republicans are the party of limited government, so they must be ok with government shutting down.

In the Democrats’ mythology, the two-week partial shutdown of state government in July 2011 was the key factor in their election victories of 2012.  In their telling, Minnesota voters were furious with Republicans for denying them some of the free goodies that government benevolently bestows for those few days the previous July.

Democrats’ belief in this myth is bolstered by the sheer resources the party devoted to creating it.  In 2011, the Democrat-front-group Alliance for a Better Minnesota reports spending $777,851 on “budget battle advertising, which ABM describes as,

Increase public awareness of the implications of Minnesota’s state budget deficit.  Develop public understanding of the implications of state budget decisions at the Minnesota State Legislature.[1]

Of course, national Democrats tried this same tactic in 2014.  Despite blaming House Republicans for the partial shutdown of the national government in October 2013, Democrats suffered a historic election defeat in 2014 in both House and Senate races.

Despite the recent evidence to the contrary, I think that Democrats believe that a 2015 Minnesota government shutdown will lead to 2016 election wins.

The Minnesota State Senate is led by Democrat Tom Bakk, who must defend his majority in the 2016 election cycle.  Bakk is a past candidate for Governor, whose campaign committee continues to be active, according to records on file at the state Campaign Finance Board.

Governor Dayton is eager to regain one-party rule in St. Paul for the last two years of his final term.

Shortly after this month’s election, Mark Dayton was quoted by MinnPost as saying,

At a news conference Wednesday (November 5^th) Dayton was refreshed, relaxed, and pointed about how he intends to work with the Republicans who will have an 11-seat house majority.  

“I’m going to be as conciliatory as I can be and I’m just pointing to the past,” he said, referring to the government shutdown in 2011, the last time Republicans had control of the legislature. 

Democrats seem to believe that they have everything to gain from another shutdown.  ABM will throw resources into spinning the outcome and a compliant local media will go along with the Democrat narrative.

Circle July 1 on your political calendar.

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[1] ABM’s 2011 IRS Form 990 filing.  Page 2, Line 4a.

The Opinion Minute: November 16th Edition

Lori Sturdevant:  Democrats lost the state House of Representatives this year.  This defeat was the fault of an unpopular Barack Obama.  Or it was the Democrats’ fault for not defending Obama more.  Or the Democrats ran a lousy campaign.  In no way can the  Democrats’ election defeat be attributed to the wonderful policies enacted by Democrats in the past two years.

D.J. Tice:  Tice is the Star Tribune’s staff “conservative.”  At the Star Tribune, this post is strictly part time.  Look for the next column to hit next month. 

The lead piece this Sunday calls for the newly-elected Republican House to implement the Democrats’ “workforce” agenda, as if the Democrats had won the election.  Mostly this agenda consists of more money for the higher ed labor unions.

Speaking of higher ed, the Editorial Board thinks that all the various Democrat appointees in the State University system need to stop squabbling among themselves.

Finally, The Economist says that the Republicans didn't really win the election this month:  things are tough all over the world.  When conservative governments win power anywhere in the world, they need to understand that this just means they should do a better job of implementing the policies that the ousted liberal parties failed to implement properly.

The Party of Yesterday

The Washington Post woke up after last week’s election and discovered that the ruling Democrats are old.  I mean really, really old.  The Post’s Dan Balz wrote,

The past two midterm elections have been cruel to Democrats, costing them control of the House and now the Senate, and producing a cumulative wipeout in the states.  The 2010 and 2014 elections saw the defeat of younger politicians—some in office, others seeking it—who might have become national leaders.

After Republican wave elections in 2010 and 2014, Democrats nationwide have been left with a thin bench to replace aging leaders.  Here in Minnesota, we see something of the same phenomenon at work.

Democrat Governor Mark Dayton is entering his final term as governor at age 67.  His Lt. Gov., Tina Smith, is 55.  Sen. Al Franken is 63.  Sen. Amy Klobuchar is 54.

The much-touted “youthful” former mayor of Minneapolis, R.T. Rybak, is turning 59 this week.  The only prominent state-level Democrats in their 40’s are incoming House Minority Leader Paul Thissen (47) and Attorney General Lori Swanson (47).

Former House Majority Leader Tony Sertich is just 38.  Former House Speaker Margaret Anderson-Kelliher is 46. 

On the other side of the aisle, state Republicans are rich in leaders a generation younger than the most-prominent Democrats.  Incoming House Speaker Kurt Daudt is 41 and the new House Majority Leader Joyce Peppin is 44.

The four most prominent Republicans running for Governor this year were all relatively young.  Nominee Jeff Johnson just turned 48.  Marty Seifert is 42, Kurt Zellers is 45 and Scott Honour is 48.  Nominee for Senate, Mike McFadden, recently turned 50.

Former House Majority Leader Matt Dean is also 48.  Big Republican vote-getters Congressman Erik Paulsen is 49, Sheriff Rich Stanek is 52, and Congressman-elect Tom Emmer is 53.

Republicans have a deep bench of office-holders in their 40’s and early 50’s, several of whom rose to prominence by way of Republicans victories in 2010 and 2014.

 

I’m sure I’m leaving out worthy names from both Democrats and Republicans in this survey.  But for once, time seems to be on the side of the Republicans.

Notes from state House races

Congratulations to Minnesota House of Representatives Minority Leader Kurt Daudt and House Republicans on recapturing control of that body in yesterday's elections.

It appears that Republicans will have 72 members in the incoming House, returning the party to the status quo ante before the 2012 election.  [MinnPost has an excellent visual of party control, see link.]

No House Republican incumbent lost this year and it appears that they will gain 11 seats.  The new contingent will be a little rural and a less suburban than the incoming class of 2010.

Nine of the 11 gained seats are in out state Minnesota.  Republicans captured seats in what are otherwise strongly Republican and conservative districts.

One measure in particular demonstrates the leanings of these seats.  In 2012, Republicans captured the top 12 seats where support of the same-sex marriage constitutional amendment was greatest.  In 2014, they captured nine of the 10 next strongest "Yes" vote districts that Republicans did not already hold.

As is stands, of the 26 House districts with the biggest Yes vote on the marriage amendment, Republicans now hold 25 of these seats.

The other two seats capture by Republicans last night include surburban 56A, where Republican Roz Peterson lost by only 170 votes last go around and 14B, the highly contested St. Cloud-area seat formerly held by King Banaian.  When all the dollars are counted, spending on that race may top $1 million.

Endorsement, Part 3

Here are the facts:  David Schultz is a professor at Hamline University.  He frequently appears on local media commenting on Minnesota politics.

In 2014 he endorsed a former student, a Democrat, for state House of Representatives district 44b.  On August 21, Schultz said he would not comment on this race in the media.

Here he is commenting on the 44b race in local media.

What should we conclude from this set of facts?

Polls, Part 2

Who knew?  It turns out that political polling companies want to get rehired for the next election.  So the polls coming out just days before the 2014 election show just about every race moving in the Republican's direction, confirming what the generic polls have been saying for months.

The latest poll on the Minnesota Governor's race shows just a five-point lead for the Democrat incumbent, Mark Dayton.  That's half the lead that poll showed just two weeks ago.  In fact, each of the last five polls at RealClearPolitics shows a lead smaller than the previous poll in this race.

No one knows what the result will be on Tuesday.  But Republicans still have about 30 hours to have an impact.  I plan to spend all day on Monday working to help Republican candidates win in Minnesota.

Professor

The Rochester Post Bulletin reports today on the hotly contested state House of Representatives seat in the Albert Lea area (district 27A).  Reports indicate that outside groups have already poured $377,000 into this contest, and Election Day isn’t until next week.

First-term Democrat Shannon Savick is running for re-election against former Albert Lea teacher-of-the-year Republican Peggy Bennett.  Reporters and readers alike are hungry this time of year for some independent, informed analysis to put all of this into its proper perspective.

In this instance, the Post Bulletin turned to University of Minnesota political scientist Kathryn Pearson.  The paper quotes Pearson,

University of Minnesota political science professor Kathryn Pearson said the sheer amount of money flowing into the House District 27A race makes it clear Republicans think they've got a good shot at picking up the seat.

"Savick is one of the most vulnerable DFL incumbents, so essentially for Republicans to gain majority party control, she and other story of similarly situated DFLers would have to lose," Pearson said.

At this point, Pearson said the battle for control of the Minnesota House is simply too close to call headed into Election Day.

If I were uncharitable, I would describe that last sentence as self-serving for Professor Pearson.  As I have documented before, Dr. Pearson serves on the board of the leftist political group womenwinning.org.  

Womenwinning, of course, has endorsed Rep. Savick in this race.  According to records on file at the state Campaign Finance Board, the group’s PAC has donated $1,000 to Savick’s campaign, the maximum allowed under state law.

Somehow, this conflict of Dr. Pearson’s did not make it into the story. 

Home is Where the Money Is

Embattled Democrat state senator Jeff Hayden was back in the news yesterday.  The former Community Action of Minneapolis board member has been insisting for weeks that he took no perks from the now closed anti-poverty agency.

Minneapolis Star Tribune reporter Alejandra Matos has found a Community Action receipt for airfare for Sen. Hayden and his wife to travel to New York back in 2012.  So his previous denials are, as they say, no longer operative.

An August 7, 2014 state audit of Community Action’s spending raised questions regarding the perks received by senior management and board members of the taxpayer-funded non profit.  The Star Tribune reported on the audit on September 22^nd.  On September 27^th, state regulators shut down the Minneapolis non-profit, distributing its caseload to neighboring agencies.

The scandal has proven to be an embarrassment to some Democrat state politicians, coming in the closing weeks of the 2014 election.  As it turn out, the state’s Community Action agency network has a political group of its own.

According to records on file at the state Campaign Finance Board, the Minnesota Community Action Partnership Political Action Committee was formed in 1996.  As PAC’s go, it’s a rather modest affair, raising and spending only a few thousand dollars a year.

The agencies themselves do not contribute to the PAC.  Contributors are individuals, including local agency employees and friends of the community action movement.

As you would expect from an organization with roots in LBJ’s Great Society, the PAC leans a little to the left.

The PAC’s most recent contribution was $250 to the campaign of Democrat Gov. Mark Dayton on September 16^th, in the midst of the Community Action of Minneapolis scandal.  The only other itemized candidate contribution in 2014 was $300 to Jay McNamar, a first-term Democrat state representative locked in a tough re-election battle.

The PAC is bipartisan, donating $500 to Democrat legislative caucuses and $300 to the Republicans in 2014.

In 2013, the PAC donated an even $500 to each party.  The other donations given by the PAC were too small to be itemized.

In 2012, the PAC gave $250 to Mark Dayton, $500 to the Democrats in the legislature and $600 to the Republicans (who were then in the majority).

In 2011, the PAC’s itemized contributions went exclusively to Democrats.  In 2010, the PAC’s contributions again leaned to the left, with $1,000 going to Democrats and $550 to Republicans.  In 2009, the numbers went $250 to Democrats and $200 to Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

These dollar figures are too small to hold any real meaning.  But to paraphrase the old cliché, home is where the money is.