Anatomy of a Poll

In the final week of the 2014 campaign, for Jeff Johnson partisans there is much hope to be found in the final Star Tribune poll.

In the previous poll, conducted by the Star Tribune in mid-September, incumbent Democrat Gov. Mark Dayton led Republican Jeff Johnson 45 to 33 percent.

The latest poll from the Star Tribune has Dayton leading 45 to 38 percent.

You read that correctly, in the past five weeks, Mark Dayton has enjoyed nothing by favorable press from local media, a massive advantage in paid advertising, and an endless parade of national Democrat heavyweights stopping in Minnesota to plead his case.  The result?  Not one additional voter has moved in his direction.

In the meantime, Jeff Johnson, whose campaign is written off anew on a daily basis by all of the professional pundits and political scientists, has done nothing but gain on his opponent.

From September to October, Dayton’s three-point lead among independents (25 to 22) has fallen to a 14-point deficit (27 to 41).

The latest poll indicates that 10 percent of voters are still undecided, and the vast majority of these are Republicans and independents.  Fifteen percent of independents are undecided against 12 percent of Republicans and just five percent of Democrats.  Johnson is overwhelmingly favored by voters in the first two groups that have decided on a candidate.

None of these observations guarantee a Johnson victory next week.  But after a four-decade career in public office, Mark Dayton has yet to close the deal with Minnesota voters.