An Island of Blue

According to the Washington Post, support for Democrats just hit a 30-year low.  The opening sentence in today’s Post reads as follows,

The Democratic Party is held in worse regard than at any point in the past 30 years, according to a new poll.

If you are a Republican, reading the front page of Real Clear Politics these days can be a real joy:  Republicans are taking the lead in Colorado and New Hampshire and elsewhere.  It may not turn into a “wave,” but prospects for Republicans in next month’s election are looking up.

Except in Minnesota.  In the North Star State, we’re told that just the opposite is occurring.  The local branch office of Democrats is said to be surging three weeks before the election and is certain to retain—if not extend—their one-party-rule at the state level.

Somehow, the national party’s troubles and the daily drumbeat of bad news—ISIS, Ebola, stock market collapse—haven’t reached Minnesota. 

Even as the Minneapolis Star Tribune is having to prepare its readers for disappointment at the national level (“Democrats' House chances fade”), we are reassured that nothing like that could happen here.  All politics is local, after all.

A number of theories have been floated in local media to explain why conditions here are diverging from the national scene.  In Minnesota, we have no unemployment, our local implementation of Obamacare has come off flawlessly, our elected officials are universally recognized as competent and energetic, etc.

Yet something tells me that even Minnesota may not remain immune from national trends.  My theory is that—when it comes to politics—low information voters pay more attention to the national scene than to state or local developments.  When they do start paying attention—on or about November 3^rd—they will vote accordingly.