…And MNsure Statistics

Here’s how I calculated the average MNsure rate increases.

There are four remaining plans in the MNsure system.  Here is their average increase and customer count, by plan.

	% Rate		%	Weighted
Plan	Increase	Members	Members	Increase
Blue Cross	17.15	9,900	57%	9.70
Medica	1.8	2,000	11%	0.21
Ucare	-9.07	600	3%	-0.31
Health Part.	8.12	5,000	29%	2.32
Simple Avg.	4.5
Total		17,500		11.92

The much touted 4.5 percent increase figure is the simple average of the reported average rate increases for the four remaining plans.  Weighting the increase by each plan’s market share produces an average increase of 11.92 percent.

The simple average gives too much weight to the decrease at UCare, which has only 600 customers (3 percent of remaining plans).

As for Preferred One, the market leader who pulled out last month, here’s what has been reported (Snowbeck's StarTribune story):  under Preferred One, for a 25-year-old buyer, Twin Cities’ location, the lowest level (bronze plan) went for $91 a month.  For 2015, the cheapest comparable plan (see Dept. of Commerce pdf) is $109.93.  That works out to a 20.8 percent increase.  Other customers in other locations will have different results.

Also, we keep hearing that Minnesota has the lowest rates in the country.  Actually, the study cited only compares Minneapolis/St. Paul to a select group of other urban markets.  I am not aware of a comprehensive state-to-state comparison, or a study comparing all urban areas.