We fall for it, every time. It’s Autumn of an election year. A poll comes out that has the Republican behind, and we collapse into a puddle of despair and recriminations. Yet somehow, on election day, the Republican candidate manages to pull out a win or loses by a whisker.
October 2006, a new poll comes out
showing Democrat challenger Mike Hatch has blown the race for Governor wide
open and leads Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty by nine points. On election day, Pawlenty wins a second term.
October 2008, a new poll comes
out that shows Democrat challenger Al Franken has blown the race for U.S.
Senator wide open and leads Republican incumbent Norm Coleman by nine
points. On election day, Coleman
actually wins the initial count of votes.
September 2010, a new poll comes out that
shows Democrat Mark Dayton maintaining a nine point lead over Republican Tom
Emmer. The October poll has Emmer down by 7. On election day, Emmer loses…in a
recount by a few thousand votes.
September 2014, a new Star Tribune poll came out that showed Democrat Mark Dayton leading Republican Jeff Johnson by 12 points. The October Star Tribune poll has Democrat Mark Dayton leading Republican Jeff Johnson by only 7. The purpose of these pre-election opinion polls is not to track voter intentions, but to suppress Republican interest and turnout. And it works almost every time.
In 2014 the effect was particularly insidious: just as Johnson was gearing up his general election campaign, the September poll was indicating--against all available evidence elsewhere--that Johnson was falling further behind.
In October the lead has been, effectively, cut in half. That is no accident. Should Johnson prevail on election day, the Star Tribune will claim that the race was "late breaking" and their poll reflected the late tightening of the race. Because that is what they say every year.
Election Day is still more than a week
away. Don’t give up!
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