The Shape of Things to Come

Bear with me, in this edition of the Column, I will be tying together a few loose threads that, when linked together, may help to explain our otherwise inexplicable national situation.

Thread 1: Rasmussen Reports does a weekly tracking poll of whether Americans think our country is heading is the right direction or the wrong direction.  Not surprisingly, in this Federal shutdown month of October, the “right direction” numbers have been registering in the teens, while the “wrong” direction crowd has numbered in the 80’s.

What is surprising is that 17 percent of Americans think we are going in the right direction.  I’m surprised the number is that high because, if pressed, I’m not sure that I can describe what direction we’re headed in.  Not that I think there is any consensus among the 80 percent, who feel otherwise, about what direction we should be headed in.

The Age of Herbert Stein

Even with the warm weather lingering into October, I’m declaring an end to summer and marking the return of The Column.

We have entered Day Two of a Federal government shutdown, the latest in a series of a dozen-and-a-half such shutdowns that have occurred over the past forty years or so.

The latest deadlock between Congress and the President is the result of the unbridgeable divide between the parties that I’ve been writing about for the past two years.  The differences between Democrats and Republicans are ones of kind, not of degree.  Since there is no overlap in what the two parties want, there is no natural point of compromise.

More interesting than the national story is the local dispute between the Minnesota Orchestra and its musicians.  This dispute/lockout/strike had dragged on for more than a year and has cost the Orchestra its celebrity conductor and more than a full season worth of concerts.

Minnesota's Legislature Elects a New People

The Minnesota State Legislature ended its 2013 session with a hurried whimper, minutes before midnight on Monday, May 20^th. 

One of the last orders of business—the nearly 400-page tax bill—turns out to have been one of those “We have to pass the bill so you can find out what is in it” situations.  The next-day headlines focused on the $2.1 billion in tax increases:  income tax hikes, corporate tax hikes, tobacco tax increases, sales tax increases, etc.  Not included in that figure are the $ hundreds of millions hidden as “fees” in the dozen or so spending bills that fund state government.

Now that the tax bill has passed, the sordid details are starting to trickle out.  Since Monday we have learned about $250 million in tax breaks for the Mall of America expansion, a $33 million bailout of the Minneapolis Central Library, and taxpayer money for a 3M corporate expansion in Maplewood.  The $400 million in subsidies for the Mayo Clinic in Rochester and a $33 million bailout of St. Paul’s Xcel Energy hockey arena were already known before the bill was voted on.  We are preemptively bailing out the new Vikings stadium, on which construction has yet to start.  I’m confident we will learn about more big-dollar taxpayer gifts over the next few weeks.

Be Very, Very Quiet, We’re Making Energy Policy

The Minnesota House of Representatives made history last night, passing a nation-leading 40 percent renewable electricity requirement (tied with Hawaii).  Added on top is a 10 percent solar-power-only goal, including a 4 percent solar mandate.  All told, Minnesota is requiring its biggest utilities to produce fully half of their power from renewable sources.

You didn’t hear about it?  Don’t worry, you weren’t supposed to.  The debate ran for hours, but was blacked out on public television.  Taxpayer funded radio is all but silent.

Time was, a big new renewable power requirement would make national news.  Last night, I was predicting that the House vote would get no more than a paragraph in our state’s leading newspaper.  I overestimated its newsworthiness.  Not one word of the vote appeared in today’s Minneapolis Star Tribune paper edition.

The Ungrateful Peasants

About a month ago, I praised Minnesota Democrat Governor Mark Dayton for holding town hall meetings around the state.  Perhaps I was too hasty.

Lately, Gov. Dayton’s encounters with the hoi polloi have not gone well.  On Monday, the Governor held one of his “Meetings With Mark” in the southwest metro suburb of Shakopee.  At the event, the Governor declared of his audience, “Never seen a group this rude.”

By Tuesday morning, he had doubled down, adding the word “juvenile” to his description of the crowd.  There seems to be a genuine disagreement among those actually on the scene regarding just how rude, if at all, the crowd was on Monday night.

There can be no mistake about the Governor’s demeanor when in front of a “hostile crowd.”  Although I was not on hand Monday night in Shakopee, I did attend what had to have been one of Governor Dayton’s first speeches after taking office back in 2011, a January 2011 appearance before the state Chamber of Commerce.  As this account of the event implies, when faced with a skeptical crowd, the Governor reverts to full lecture mode.  At least that’s the way it seemed to me from the cheap seats.

Does a Bear ---- in the Woods? Not if the MPCA Can Stop Him

On the radio this past Earth Day Monday, I put forward the proposition that the modern environmental movement is a victim of its own success.  As the obvious environmental problems are all solved—burning rivers, open waste pits, etc.), we have to dig ever deeper for new challenges and set new standards for environmental quality, no matter how unreasonable, to make environmental “progress.”

This article in today's Minneapolis Star Tribune on local smog jogged loose a nearly-twenty-year-old memory. 

Back then, scientists were searching for clues as to why certain waters in the Chesapeake Bay region were being contaminated by fecal coliform bacteria.  The usual suspects—agriculture, residential housing, and sewage treatment—appeared blameless.

Scientists from Virginia Tech studying the matter collected data showing that at some locations and times, wildlife are the primary sources of fecal pollution. 

Super-Secret Tax Deals: The Shape of Things to Come

One of my favorite TV commercials from the 1970’s was for Triumph Motor Company’s sports cars.  Promoting the alleged aerodynamic qualities of their triangular-shaped British-made cars, Triumph used the tag line, “The shape of things to come.”  Triumph proved to be far from the mark, as the egg-shaped minivans of the 1980’s demonstrated.

Triumph itself never lived to see that day, ending production in 1981.  When then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher (whose funeral was this morning) pulled the plug on government subsidies for state-owned industries, Triumph’s parent company, British Leyland, was broken up and sold off.

Although both Triumph and Baroness Thatcher are now gone, the belief in industrial policy—that government can make better decisions than private business—is still alive and well.

Case in point:  Minnesota state government.  On Monday, Democrats in the state House of Representatives introduced a bill to raise taxes by $2.6 billion over the next two years, which (among other items) would increase the state’s income tax rates to the nation's second highest.

"I Love It When A Plan B Comes Together"

A friend of mine observed on Twitter this afternoon that there sure seem to be a lot of “Plan B’s” floating around the state capitol for a government dominated by one-party rule.

It’s true.  Everywhere you look in St. Paul this week, the Democrats are playing a mulligan off the tee:  whether it’s the Governor’s Budget 2.0, the Mayo expansion bill, financing for the Vikings stadium, or the on-again-off-again gas tax.

To be fair, I would have trouble getting organized if I were governing from a program completely unrelated to the one I campaigned on.  Minnesota’s 88^th legislature has passed just 10 laws to date.  The gridlocked, hyper-partisan, do-nothing, Republican-controlled 87^th had managed to pass a dozen laws by this point in 2011.

As it happened, back in 2011, I spent much of the first few weeks of the 87^th legislature sitting in committee hearings and watching floor sessions.  Back then, the Democrats, newly in the minority, took every opportunity to leap upon each Robert’s Rules slip up or parliamentary faux pas.  The Democrats were trying to develop an “amateur hour” narrative around the newly-elected Republican majority.  With the 88^th legislature, the amateur hour theory doesn’t work, as Democrats are the natural party of government.

As the possibility of an on-time finish in five weeks recedes beyond the horizon, I am still confident that 2013 will see record amounts of legislation passed—even if it takes all twelve months to get it done.  What I’m most concerned about is the quality of the work product.  Like last year’s Vikings bill, too much of what gets slapped together minutes before committee hearings has that Pelosian “we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it” feel. 

To expand on a quote from a few posts ago, Time magazine’s Joe Klein wrote back in 2010 of the national party version,

Democrats tend to be more interested in legislating than in managing.  They come to office filled with irrational exuberance, pass giant fur balls of legislation — stuff that often sounds fabulous, in principle — and expect a stultified bureaucracy, bereft of the incentives and punishments of the private sector, to manage it all with the efficiency of a bounty hunter.

Our Minnesota version, the DFL, seems to suffer from a similar malady.  Whether it’s the new state healthcare exchange, the ever-evolving tax bill, or the many social engineering efforts, this year’s priorities have no shortage of detail and complexity.  As for workable, check back with me next year.

The Stockton Syndrome Infects Minnesota Pensions

In news that should have been bigger new this week, the City of Stockton, California, received the go ahead to file what will be the largest municipal bankruptcy in American history.  It probably won’t hold the record for long.  As the Modesto Bee reports,

"Nearly two dozen California cities, from San Jose and Watsonville to San Bernardino and Compton, are facing bankruptcy filings or financial emergencies—and their hefty pension costs are getting heightened scrutiny."

How bad a shape is the California state pension system (CALPERS) in?  The Bee notes,

"California's $225 billion Public Employees Retirement System is underfunded by $87 billion, which means there are more payments due to retirees than money in the system.

"Stockton's biggest creditors insured $165 million in bonds the city issued in 2007 to keep up with CalPERS payments as property taxes plummeted during the recession. Stockton owes CalPERS about $900 million to cover pension promises—by far the city's largest financial obligation."

So America’s largest pending municipal bankruptcy is due in large part to pension obligations owed to public sector workers.  Doing the math, that nine-tenths of a $ billion works out to more than $3,000 for every resident of Stockton.

We in Minnesota would never let ourselves get into such a mess, right?

Dayton Does Town Hall Minnesota

I have been a long-time promoter of the idea of Town Hall Minnesota, a structured setting in which ordinary citizens can question elected officials.

To his credit, Minnesota’s Democrat Governor Mark Dayton has embraced the town hall concept and is now ¾ of the way through another such tour of the state.  By all accounts, the events have been well attended and, perhaps, even productive.

It seems that the Governor receives feedback on these out-state trips that he is not receiving (or heeding) back in St. Paul.

You may recall that, in July 2011, Dayton decided to end the state government shutdown while still in the midst of a statewide tour selling his side of the story. 

I’m Still Working on “Old”

This week I return to the subject of this February column on the future of the Republican Party.

Here in Minnesota, we are saying farewell to our outgoing party Chair in the midst of the campaign for his replacement.  It’s tough to have a gathering of more than two Republicans without a seminar breaking out on what to do next.

At the national level, the party is going through a self-evaluation of what went wrong in 2012.  The Republican National Committee (RNC) issued a 100-page report, a post-mortem of the last election.  Much of the report’s advice was common sense stuff:  new voter database, better technology, etc.  But the Wall Street Journal reports that,

In focus groups, voters who had left the Republican Party said they found the GOP to be "scary," "narrow-minded," "out of touch" and the party of "stuffy old men."

Budget Redux

A few weeks back, when Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton first introduced his latest budget proposal, I wrote in this space that the document represented the state's first "post-modern" budget.

If I may quote myself,

"It does not meet the Minnesota of the 21^st century where it can be found, but rather, the Governor’s budget alternates between addressing a Minnesota that exists no longer (if it ever did) and addressing the world as he wished it existed."

Well, less than two months on, the Governor's budget has indeed foundered on the shoals of reality.  Now, the Governor is in the midst of a massive redo, trying to salvage what he can from his mix of new taxes, rebates, and more spending.

Political Charity Stands Astride the World

We are now into the third month of one-party Democrat rule in Minnesota, and political charity finds itself going from triumph to triumph under the Capitol Dome.

On a daily basis, you can actually watch as progressive advocates recalibrate upward what is possible in this receptive policy environment.  It's all hands on deck for every liberal initiative ever conceived of and any half-baked idea will get an airing.

The seeds of today's victories were sown years ago.  You may recall 2011 as the year Republicans took control of the full state legislature for the first time, ever.  For the sophisticated, far-sighted investor in Minnesota's left-wing politics, 2011 was a year that the state's public policy was on sale at some very attractive prices.  As a result, Minnesota now fills a market niche for national foundations as a laboratory for new ideas.

A Cold Argentina

When Minnesota’s Democrats (or DFL, Democrat-Farmer-Labor as we style them in the North Star state) brought in one-party rule for the first time in a generation, the state knew it was in for a change.

Last week blogger Mitch Berg cautioned against those of us in opposition using up too much activist energy too early in this legislative session, lest we have nothing left for the more important issues during the big push at the end.

He’s right.  Even worse, he had no idea of the avalanche headed our way.  Each day sees at last two economy-devastating pieces of legislation introduced.

Flood the Zone

Take yesterday as an example.  A state senate committee voted to shut down an entire industry (sand mining), a house committee considered a crippling new renewable energy mandate, and the dome saw a union rally in support of a far left agenda.  Not bad for a Tuesday.

The Swedish Model and the Growth Agenda

History warns us, however, that it is the customary fate of new truths to begin as heresies and to end as superstitions.

--Thomas Henry Huxley (1880)

The February 2^nd edition of The Economist carries a 14-page special report on the political and economic reforms underway in the four Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland).  Just as the U.S. and Minnesota are moving toward more social democracy, it turns out the birthplace of the Scandinavian-style welfare state is moving in the opposite direction.

Here in Minnesota—where more than 32 percent of Minnesotans still trace their ancestry to the Nordic countries (2010 Census data)—our one-party state government struggles with developing any new policy ideas beyond warmed-over 1970’s Scandinavian welfare statism.

I hold out hope that examining the new directions the Nordic states are taking may help us with some clues on how to develop a Minnesota-style growth agenda.

State of the Union

In last week's edition of The Column, I covered Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton's State of the State address.  Last night, President Obama delivered his State of the Union (SOTU) address before Congress.  I have not seen a SOTU delivered on television since sometime in the early Clinton years.  But, as with Gov. Dayton's effort, I did get around to reading the transcript.

During the Cold War, western analysts used to watch the military parades in Moscow for clues as to who was in and who was out of power.  Where somebody stood in relation to the leader on a reviewing stand, or a key absence from the event, would send diplomats in a tizzy halfway around the world.

The Shape of the Playing Field, Part 1

In the wake of last November’s election, both major political parties in Minnesota are trying to figure out what comes next.  The Democrats (DFL, Democrat-Farmer-Labor as they are styled in Minnesota) are enjoying a moment of triumphalism.  Republicans are turning introspective.

Democrats:  Never Been More Powerful

Still fresh from last November’s victory, DFL Chair Ken Martin was re-elected over the weekend to a second two-year term.  He is reported to have said “the party has never been more powerful.”

The DFL Chair is more worried about underperforming than overreaching.

Column Icon: Nelson's Column

To better identify posts that include the weekly Column, I am adding the icon on the left.

It depicts the top of Nelson's Column, which is located in London's Trafalgar Square and honors Lord Horatio Nelson, the British Admiral who defeated Napolean's French fleet in the famous 1805 battle fought off the Spanish coast.

My favorite bit of the story is when Nelson sends the pre-battle message to his fleet, "England expects that every man will do his duty."

¡Viva la Revolución!

It’s been more than a week since Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton issued his proposed two-year state budget.  The budget struck most of the correct progressive notes and received the expected praise from that corner.  Local media credit the budget with “the most comprehensive reworking of the tax system in a generation.”[1]  True, the Governor’s plan has many moving parts and the PR campaign does include some focus-grouped phrases, like "strengthening the middle class."

In the opposite of a duck, the budget is all thrashing on the surface and below the water line, oddly listless.  Now is the time when the state needs a plan for bold reform of how government services are delivered and a tax code that unleashes Minnesota’s entrepreneurs:  in short, a budget that sets the stage for future growth.  Instead we get the re-election campaign-mottoed “Budget for a Better Minnesota.”

Governor Dayton’s Post-Modern Budget

Minnesota’s reclusive Governor, Mark Dayton, emerged from the shadows yesterday to deliver his budget proposal for the next two-year cycle.  Much of the immediate political and media reaction focused on the details:  what will or won’t be taxed, what spending will or won’t happen.  Such coverage misses the larger message of the Governor’s budget.

I knew something was different as my Twitter timeline filled—while the Governor introduced his budget—with increasingly ecstatic sentiments being expressed by my far-left friends.  They were all of a theme that “Dayton’s budget marks a new era of __fill in the blank with your favorite policy area__.”

Parts of the budget may have provided useful building blocks in a different, more coherent program.  However, this Governor’s second two-year budget, taken as a whole, represents a profoundly unserious document.  It stands as Minnesota’s first “post-modern” budget.  It does not meet the Minnesota of the 21^st century where it can be found, but rather, the Governor’s budget alternates between addressing a Minnesota that exists no longer (if it ever did) and addressing the world as he wished it existed.