Roundup on the Rotherham Story

For those looking to catch up on the horrific Rotherham scandal, I suggest reading these items,

BBC News--Key Events in the timeline

John O-Sullivan--Rotherham's and England's shame--National Review

Mark Steyn--The Reformation of Manners--SteynOnline

The Guardian--August 31 story.

The Guardian--Ann Cryer interview

The Daily Mail--Labour accused of turning a blind eye to abuse

The Opinion Minute (8/31)

This Labor Day weekend, I summarize the Minneapolis Sunday Star Tribune Opinion section in less than 500 words.

“The world as it is: The influence of religion.”  This week's big piece centers on a map showing the predominant religions for regions in Europe, northern Africa, and western Asia.  The map points out that the Roman Catholic/Eastern Orthodox dividing line runs through western Ukraine.

However, with one exception, the author’s map could have been drawn 100 years ago exactly as it appears today.  The one exception is that the author—David Pence—draws a red line around most of western and northern Europe to designate what he calls the “Secular West.”

Pence notes that modern Americans and Europeans have little contact with deeply religious or military peoples.  He suggests that the late unpleasantness calls for modern Americans to gain a greater understanding of such foreign practices.

After walling off the “Secular West” behind his red line, Pence turns his attention to the rest of Eurasia.  By doing so, however, he is missing what may be the biggest story in the next 20 years.  It’s true that religious practice within the traditional faith majorities (Protestants in northern Europe and Catholics in southern Europe) has fallen to barely measurable levels, one shouldn’t assume that western Europe has turned “secular” and strife-free.

The new faults lines will be within European nations.  While the native majorities have largely abandoned the faiths of their ancestors, newly arrived immigrants are rather more enthusiastic about theirs.

The Cupcake Principle

George Will wrote a column recently in which he promulgated the cupcake corollary to explain the exponential growth of the regulatory state.  Will writes on the subject of cupcakes,

Washington’s response to the menace of school bake sales illustrates progressivism’s ratchet:  The federal government subsidizes school lunches, so it must control the lunches’ contents, which validates regulation of what it calls “competitive foods,” such as vending machine snacks.  Hence the need to close the bake sale loophole, through which sugary cupcakes might sneak:  Foods sold at fundraising bake sales must, with some exceptions, conform to federal standards.

Here is the North Star State, there is no shortage of examples that illustrate the cupcake principle or as Will summarizes, “Swollen government has a shriveled brain.”  I offer the example of the Amish man in trouble for not building a modern septic system for his new home.  The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports,

Ammon Swartzentruber appeared in Fillmore County District Court on Wednesday to contest a misdemeanor charge of failing to get a building permit for the home his family began constructing in Harmony [a town in Minnesota].

"We never had to do it before and we don't believe in changing," said Ammon.

He may not believe in changing, but his local county government sure does.  The Star Tribune adds,

The county adopted new treatment system ordinances in December of 2013. Swartzentruber told KTTC-TV that he was able to obtain building permits in the past because that ordinance didn't exist.

"In the past some of those conditions may not have been in place," said Fillmore County Attorney Brett Corson.

Following the inexorable logic of the cupcake principle, we have the situation in 2014 where Fillmore County Minnesota is prosecuting an Amish man for not joining the 21^st century.

Facts

[Note:  As usual Mitch Berg has already covered this point.  But here goes anyway.]

The good people at Minnesota Public Radio (MPR) are keeping state politicians honest, declaring a statement made by GOP candidate for governor Jeff Johnson as “misleading.”

Johnson was touting the results of two recent opinion polls showing incumbent Democrat Gov. Mark Dayton below 50 percent and only single digits ahead of him.

As MPR concedes Johnson correctly quotes the results of the recent polls.  Where he errs, in MPR’s view, is to draw too optimistic a conclusion about where he stands.

In true Pauline Kael fashion MPR has not met anyone on their staff or in their audience that will vote Republican this November.  So, for Johnson to speak optimistically about his chances can only mislead the general electorate.

Besides, MPR pronounced the 2014 race over more than a year and a half ago, months before Johnson even entered the race.  In MPR’s view, for Johnson to keep up his challenge is just wasting everyone’s time.

You would think that local media should root for just the opposite:  a close race means conflict, and conflict draws subscribers, readers, viewers, and listeners.  If you thought that, you thought wrong.

There are two factors at work here.  First, local media believe that Democrat incumbents should not be challenged for re-election.  The people have spoken, once, got the answer correct, and their wishes should be honored as long as the incumbent is willing to serve the grateful people.

Second, with Democrats in complete control of state government, political reporters see elections as a distraction from their real work.  Local political reporters would rather report on the latest progressive initiative awaited by an eager populace.

In elections, Democrats have to waste their time and resources making a case for what local media have already accepted as necessary and urgently needed.  They would prefer to report on the implementation of the progressive vision:  Democrats have already closed the sale.

The Political Debate

Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Jon Tevlin’s latest piece decries the “The sorry state of our political debate.”

 

He calls for a pox on everyone’s house (but mostly on Republicans) over what he calls,

 

the season of perpetual apology.  Everyone seems to be in a contest to see who can be the most childish.  May the best party win.

I call it the faux outrage industry.  You know how it works:  some activist or party staffer digs up an old You Tube video, or a Tweet, or a blog post, takes a comment or image out of context, and righteously demands an apology, if not an immediate resignation or withdrawal from the race, or some such.

If Tevlin is truly wondering how we got to this point, he needs to begin his search by looking at the mirror.  The reason why the politics of faux outrage works in Minnesota is because Jon Tevlin pioneered it.

Is Our Children Learning?

It would seem not, based on the latest statewide test scores.  The latest figures are the first to reflect the massive increase in state government spending on public education, the “Minnesota Miracle 2.”

As it turns out, merely pouring more taxpayer dollars into the same old broken system does not produce measurably better results.  Most disappointing, the state’s achievement gap (the difference in test scores posted by the state’s minority students) hardly budged.

The state’s teachers’ union wishes the testing would stop.  Tired of the reminders that the extra millions are not buying better results, the union would prefer that parents be kept in the dark about actual educational achievement.  The Education Minnesota union is the state’s wealthiest political organization, spending millions of dollars to elect Democrats who will vote to give the union millions of dollars more in taxpayer money.


There are no shortage of good ideas out there to improve student performance, even in our poorest areas.

I devoted the April 5, 2014 episode of my Minnesota Radio Forum show on AM 1570 to the subject of education reform.  We covered the entire K-12 education spectrum with Ambassdor Ben Whitney on public schools, Fr. Timothy Manatt of Cristo Rey High School, and Beth Topoluk on charter schools. It's worth a listen.

We need to get past the issue of resources and have a serious discussion on how those resources are used to educate our children.

The Mystery of the Missing Dayton Landslide

Here is a mystery I have been unable to fathom.  Over at the Real Clear Politics website, they have in their poll of polls incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton with a single-digit lead.  Not one of the three polls they list for the Minnesota governor’s race (or any other) has Dayton cracking 50 percent.  Overall RCP rates the Minnesota race as “leans” Democrat. 

Yet, reading the news coverage in our local media, one wonders why the election is still continuing.  At this point, Mark Dayton should have been re-elected for a second term by acclamation.

Alliance for a Better Minnesota Misfires

It’s been a tough election season for the Alliance for a Better Minnesota (ABM).  The ultra-wealthy Democrat-front group has uncharacteristically stumbled out of the gate in this 2014 election season.

After helping to elect Democrat Mark Dayton as Governor in 2010 and electing a Democrat-majority state legislature in 2012, the group was put in the unfamiliar position of playing defense in 2014.  With millions of dollars in the bank, the group may yet bring its signature style of political slander to bear on this year’s contest.  However, early results have not been promising for partisans on the left.

Cam Winton on GOP Messaging

On today’s Gilmore and Glahn internet radio show, we hosted in our second half-hour Republican Cam Winton, who ran for Mayor of Minneapolis last year.

On the show, Winton offered some parting advice on the GOP campaign this November.  His four-point platform was structured on the Jeff Johnson vs. Mark Dayton race, but I think it will have wider appeal.  Here, I reprint Cam's remarks from the show, beginning at the 49:20 mark,

·       1 ) Under Jeff Johnson, all kids in Minnesota would have the best possible teacher in their classroom.  Under Dayton, they won’t – because Dayton defends teachers union bosses last in first out and is trying to keep out Teach for America.  

2) Under Jeff Johnson, all people in Minnesota could choose the health plan that works best for them – as any and all insurers compete against each other to provide the cheapest possible insurance.  Under Dayton, they won’t – because we’ll continue with the centrally-planned debacle of MNSure that limits competition.  

3) Under Jeff Johnson, we’ll make Minnesota an attractive place to start a new business – so that we can grow the next Medtronic or Target.  Under Dayton, we’ll continue to have stifling regulation that leads to us being #47 in the nation for per-capita number of new business starts.  [On the air, Cam said dead last. But he looked it up and we were #47 in 2013 according to Kaufman Foundation.]

4) Under Jeff Johnson, government will be a good steward of tax dollars, paying for our priorities.  Under Dayton, it won’t – we’ll keep spending on a palace for politicians and a football stadium where the numbers don’t add up.

Back in May of last year, I offered my own bloated five point message, aimed at the low information voter and reprinted here:

·        “We will make it easier for you to start and run your own business.”  Does not require voters to know how Minnesota ranks on business formations.

·        “We will help get your child out of a failing school”   Avoids insider phrases like achievement gap or vouchers.

             

·        “We will make sure your tax money is not wasted”  Labels like spending, deficits, debt, work less well when you are not familiar with the condition of state finances.

·        “You will get to keep more of what you earn”  Every one pays taxes, but a pitch based on “eliminating the new 4^th tier income tax” presumes way to much information.

·        “We will help those who need it most”  This phrase is what the argument around “priorities” really comes down to, but without the abstraction.

The Opinion Minute (8/24)

Today, we summarize the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Opinion section for Sunday, August 24, 2014.

Leading the section this week is a piece by Bonnie Blodgett, headlined,

The world as it is: We need a Marshall Plan for the modern era

But it’s not what we’ve had in recent decades as we worship at the free-market altar

From the piece, I gather that Ms. Bodgett doesn’t think much of capitalism and less of Harvard MBA’s.  But it you are going to call for a New Marshall Plan, at least let us know where you want it:  Asia?  Russia?  Rural America?  I read the piece three times and I could not figure it out.

Liberal columnist Lori Sturdevant writes about her speech to the National Conference of State Legislators this week, covering Minnesota’s 156-year political history.  Her column is long on praise for Democrats and long on criticism of Republicans.

I looked it up:  of Minnesota’s 40 governors, 25 (63 percent) have been Republicans.  Thirteen of the first 15 were Republican, as were three of the past six.  Sturdevant can’t be bothered to mention a single one.

Her message:  vote to re-elect Mark Dayton.

House “conservative” D.J. Tice writes about the Minnesota Sex Offenders Program.  Tice argues that too few offenders have been released from the program.

Here’s what I can’t get past:  if I were involved in the program and a released offender went on to reoffend, what would I tell the victim and the victim’s family?

For its part, the Editorial Board weighs in again on behalf of higher taxes, this time for transportation.

I do recommend reading this George Will column reprinted today.  It covers how the government regulates everything from bake sales to parenting, but can’t be bothered to provide basic public safety or paved roads.

Endorsement, Part 2

Yesterday, I reported on Hamline University political science professor David Schultz’s endorsement of the Democrat candidate in a hotly contested race for state representative in the western Minneapolis suburbs.  Today, I will dig a little deeper into the background of the good Doctor to explore the fault lines between media, the academy, and politics.

First, let me say that I’m all for the Rooseveltian “Man in the Arena.”  For his part, Dr. Schultz tweeted that the candidate in question was a former student of his, and that he “Rarely if ever” endorses.  Another former student, Hamline graduate and current Republican State Rep. Nick Zerwas, Tweeted that he had not been endorsed by Prof. Schultz.  No matter, Professor Schultz is free to fight for his causes in any way he sees fit.

In his long career Schultz served as president of Common Cause’s Minnesota chapter, among many posts.  In 2011, he gained some personal notoriety for his successful efforts  to keep Republican politician Tom Emmer off the faculty of Hamline University. 

No, I blame the media outlets who put forward Dr. Schultz as a neutral, detached observer of the political scene in a manner that gives his comments more weight than if they had been uttered by a mere partisan.

For an example of this phenomenon, take Dr. Schultz’s involvement in the recent Jesse Ventura lawsuit.

In October 2013, the St. Paul Pioneer Press  reported on Dr. Schultz’s involvement in the defamation lawsuit filed by former Gov. Jesse Ventura against the late-Navy Seal Chris Kyle over a book Kyle wrote.  The newspaper reported,

Ventura claimed the book hurt his reputation and made it harder to get work.  The defense asked David Schultz, a professor at Hamline University and frequent political commentator, to assess those claims.

In an October 2012 report, Schultz--who has taught courses in methods of research--said he found Kyle's statements "have done little, if anything to hurt Governor Ventura's reputation in politics or in the media or to hurt his income prospects in politics or in the media."

After Kyle's death, Schultz revisited the issue, saying Ventura's decision to continue the suit against the widow could be a significant variable in how people view the former governor's reputation.

His verdict: Ventura's pursuit of the litigation hurt his reputation more than the book did. Schultz wrote a supplemental report, dated Oct. 8, outlining his findings and research methodology.

At the time of that Pioneer Press report, it was not clear whether Schultz report would be used in the trial.  As Channel 11 later reported, in the end, Schultz did not testify in the case.

However, at the time the verdict came down (in Ventura’s favor), a number of media outlets included quotes from Schultz on the trial’s pending verdict and final outcome, without ever mentioning his earlier role on behalf of the losing party.  (See the Associated Press, the local Fox affiliate, Minnesota Public Radio, and David Schultz himself.)

In its coverage of the case, the local CBS affiliate does mention Schultz’s role in the case in framing their interview of the Professor on the jury’s deliberations.

That Dr. Schultz chooses sides in issues of great controversy is something that he is perfectly entitled to do.  Over his long career, Schultz has chosen a side in politics, as well.

That certain media outlets portray him as an unbiased expert, calling it as he sees it—without fear or favor—does a dishonor to media consumers.

Endorsement, Part 1

[Note.  This post has been updated from its original form to include a confirmation from Dr. Schultz of his endorsement of Applebaum.]

Should political science professors endorse political candidates?  Hamline University political science professor Dr. David Schultz appears to have done just that, picking sides in a contest for state representative in Minnesota’s house district 44B.

On August 4^th, the week prior to the recent primary election, Democrat Jon Applebaum posted this statement on Twitter,

Honored to be supported by two-time Fulbright Scholar and political author, professor and analyst Dr. David Schultz.

Indeed, Applebaum still lists Schultz among his endorsements.  And give the man credit:  Professor Schultz knows how to pick them.  Applebaum won the Democrat nomination—in a close, three-way contest—to run in the general election for an open seat representing the Minnetonka-Plymouth area of the western suburbs.

It should be noted that not all of Applebaum’s endorsements have panned out.  Applebaum had previously claimed an endorsement by former Republican Congressman Jim Ramstad.  For his part, Ramstad denied that he had endorsed the Democrat candidate, while Applebaum defended the use of Ramstad’s name.  Ramstad does not appear on the current list of Applebaum’s endorsements.

If Schultz is endorsing a partisan candidate in a contested election, it raises troubling questions about the Professor’s role in the state’s political scene.  He appeared as recently as July 11^th on public television’s Almanac program as part of the show’s political science panel.  Schultz writes regularly for Politics in Minnesota’s Capitol Report, in addition to his near ubiquity in local print and broadcast media.

[Note:  In a Tweet posted this evening, Prof. Schultz confirmed his endorse of Applebaum, one of his past students.  Schultz said he would not comment on this race in the media.  Schultz may not have a choice.  When district 44B's incumbent, Democrat John Benson, announced he would not seek a fifth term in 2014, the Associated Press wrote,

"His decision announced Wednesday touches off what is likely to be a competitive contest for the seat he first won in 2006.  Although Benson ran up an 11-point win in 2012, prior contests in the suburban district have proven closer."

Democrat control of the State House of Representatives rests on a handful of swing suburban districts, 44B among them.]

Of course any regular reader of Schultz's blog will know where his political sympathies lie.  The question is:  should he still be considered a neutral observer of Minnesota’s politics?

In Part 2, I dig deeper into Prof. Schultz's long and colorful career.

Coordination

Consider the following three quotes on the subject of Democrat Gov. Mark Dayton’s re-election campaign.

Number 1,

Giving middle-class families a chance to succeed has been the driving force behind the Governor’s agenda.  By helping to create 150,000 good paying jobs, increasing the minimum wage, cutting taxes for the middle class, providing free universal access to all-day kindergarten and freezing college tuition, Governor Dayton has made Minnesota a place where the middle class has a fair shot again.

Number 2,

On farms and in factories, in classrooms and on construction sites, Minnesota is working.  Four years ago, Minnesota faced a $5 billion deficit.  But Gov. Mark Dayton showed strong leadership.  He raised taxes on the wealthiest two percent so we could invest in our schools and reduce middle class taxes.  Now Minnesota has 150,000 new jobs and a budget surplus.

Number 3,

When Mark Dayton ran for governor in 2010, he said he wanted to improve the state's economy, spend more on schools, make the tax system fairer and end the cycle of recurring state budget deficits.

Two years ago, Dayton followed through by raising income taxes on Minnesota's top earners.  He used the money from the tax increase to balance the state budget, fund statewide all-day kindergarten and increase spending for schools.

See any difference?  Neither do I.  The first passage comes directly from Dayton's campaign website.  The second is from a TV ad being run by the nominally independent political group Alliance for a Better Minnesota.  The group has close ties to the Dayton inner circle.

The third quotation comes from a straight news story aired by taxpayer-funded Minnesota Public Radio.  It reports as news—as indisputable fact—the spin put out by the Dayton campaign and its supporters.

So much for the concept of "accountability journalism.” 

…Not to be Confused with ALEC

During this summer convention season, the Minneapolis Convention Center is hosting a prestigious conference this week.  The National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) is in town, holding its Legislative Summit.

No, no, no, it’s not what you are thinking.  This is not that group of state legislators that takes corporate money and proposes model legislation.  No, it’s that other group that takes corporate money and proposes model legislation.  Minnesota Public Radio explains,

Indeed, some of Minnesota’s most well-known corporations including 3M and General Mills are sponsoring events during the week-long conference.  And representatives of companies like Comcast and Cargill will sit next to legislators and public officials from all over the country on policy panels.

But don’t worry, there are,

…key differences between the NCSL and the American Legislative Exchange Council [ALEC], an organization that brings together legislators and lobbyists to hash out model legislation.  It [ALEC] is known for having a conservative bent, supporting legislation having to do with gun rights and right-to-work laws, among other things.

You see, ALEC is conservative, so it’s evil.  The model legislation put forward by the NCSL is not conservative, so the corporate money that NCSL takes is the good kind of corporate money.

NCSL is careful to apply a bipartisan veneer to all of their work.  For example, liberal Democrat Sen. Amy Klobuchar is paired with the wife of Republican Sen. John McCain.  But the premise behind the NCSL is that all problems have a government solution, and that state government must be involved in all problems.

I’m reliably informed that a third group, the Council of State Governments, does a better job of actually being centrist on policy.

Attendees of this year’s Summit are in no danger of hearing anything that will make them feel uncomfortable.  There will be no loose talk of tax cuts or program elimination.  There is a huge wealth of policy expertise on every subject matter from a center-right perspective—in both Minnesota and at the national level.  NCSL will make little to no use of that resource. 

Subject matters—ranging from climate change to new taxes to new healthcare mandates—are carefully calibrated to accommodate ever-growing government.  It’s a liberal agenda, assembled by liberals for liberals.  A few Republicans are included to be seen and not heard.

But my fellow Edinan Andrew Zimmern will be speaking, and he eats bugs on TV.

Minnesota Is Not Working

Local blogger Gary Gross has performed a public service by digging into the premise behind the Democrats’ re-election campaign this year.  He transcribes the relevant portion of an Alliance for a Better Minnesota (ABM) TV ad supporting Democrat Gov. Mark Dayton,

Look across the land.  On farms and in factories, in classrooms and on construction sites, Minnesota is working. Four years ago, Minnesota faced a $5,000,000,000 deficit. But Gov. Mark Dayton showed strong leadership.  He raised taxes on the wealthiest 2 percent so we could invest in our schools and reduce middle class taxes.  Now Minnesota has 150,000 new jobs and a budget surplus.

As you know, ABM is the well-funded “independent” political group linked by marriage and cash to Dayton’s inner circle.  It’s fair to say that the message above will be the one coordinated across the Dayton campaign, the state Democrat party, and the associated independent spending groups this fall.

But does it have any validity?  Let’s start with the 150,000 jobs claim.  There is simply no support for that figure.  Based on data at the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, if you give Dayton credit for the high-water mark for jobs while he has held office (May 2014) and subtract the employment level from before his election (October 2010) you get only 111,626 net jobs created, a far cry from 150,000.

Making the List

Today’s Minneapolis Star Tribune front page features a big story on the Minnesota’s governor’s race.  One detail jumped out at me as I read the account of Democrat Mark Dayton’s bid for re-election,

The Dayton campaign has also gotten an assist from Minnesotans United, the political action committee that grew out of the successful effort to defeat the 2012 gay marriage ban and then pass the 2013 law that made same-sex marriage legal.  Minnesotans United assembled one of the most sophisticated grass roots operations the state has seen in years, and has vowed to protect allies like Dayton, who signed the gay marriage bill.

“We encourage our volunteers to volunteer on behalf of the governor,” said Richard Carlbom, the strategist who ran Minnesotans United.  The group has shared its lengthy donor list with the DFL.

That last sentence—about sharing the donor list—set off all manner of red lights, sirens, and air horns as I was enjoying my breakfast this morning.

The Opinion Minute (8/17)

I know that most readers are just too busy to wade through the entirety of a newspaper Sunday opinion section, especially as summer winds down and the Labor Day holiday is right around the corner.

For the benefit of the reader on the go, I’m instituting a new, occasional feature on this page, The Opinion Minute™.  This week, I’ll boil down the entire Minneapolis Star Tribune Sunday Opinion Exchange section published August 17^th to a handful of easily digestible sentences.  At least I’ll summarize the locally-generated content.

Good Deal—The cover piece by Growth and Justice’s Dane Smith spends 74 column inches delivering the message that Big Government is Good and Bigger Government would be Even Better.  Therefore, let’s double down on one-party Democrat rule in 2014.

House “Conservative” D.J. Tice writes about the U.S. Senate election this year.  He notes that Democrat incumbent Al Franken votes with President Obama 97 percent of the time.  Famously moderate Sen. Amy Klobuchar votes with Obama 98 percent of the time.  Since a Republican would vote with other Republicans most of the time, Minnesota would be better off re-electing Franken.

Weekly columnist Lori Sturdevant defends the controversial Senate office building now under construction in St. Paul.  She chastises taxpayers for not fully appreciating the courage Democrat politicians have demonstrated in voting your money to improve their own personal comfort.

For its part, the Editorial Board has heard a lot of loose talk from Republican candidates about repealing, or at least reforming, Obamacare and MNsure.  The Board is having none of it.  These programs were perfect in their construction and flawless in their implementation.  Why take a chance on change?  Vote Democrat in November.

Bottom line from this Sunday:  liberals are still good and conservatives are still evil.  I hope you enjoyed your weekend, see you next week!

Reconsidering the Economics of Marxist Puppet Shows

In news from the arts world this week, In the Heart of the Beast Puppet and Mask Theatre announced that they are experiencing some financial trouble.  The Theatre has announced some temporary layoffs and a reduction in programming.  The St. Paul Pioneer Press reports,

"Heart of the Beast has been at the edge of financial collapse before and, every time, as a consequence of hard work and generosity and sheer luck, we've managed to come through it," [the Theatre’s Executive Director Loren] Niemi said.  "There's no reason we can't do that this time, too."

On Twitter, I tried to make the serious point that if a Marxist papier-mâché puppet show can’t thrive in today’s political and economic climate, who can?  With French economist Thomas Piketty’s tome on income inequality featured on the best-sellers' list and progressive Democrats firmly in control in both Washington and St. Paul, audiences should be clamoring for anti-capitalist puppet theater.

Alas, the proximate cause of the Theatre’s money troubles appears to center on a mortgage balloon payment coming due at a particularly untimely moment.  A Marxist puppet theater can be forgiven, if not excused, for not being good at the nuts and bolts of capitalism.  After all, the Theatre is pursuing a higher calling than the grubby pursuit of coin.

The Theatre is probably best knows for organizing the annual MayDay parade in south Minneapolis.  Don’t worry, the show will go on, as Minnesota Pubic Radio reports,

In the Heart of the Beast is committed to continuing the annual May Day Parade, Niemi said, but for the company to remain financially sustainable, the parade needs more financial support from the community.

“So over the next six months I’m going to be looking at how we might partner with neighborhood organizations — the Lake Street Council, Meet Minneapolis and all the other organizations that benefit from the existence of May Day—to have them participate in the ongoing costs and management of May Day,” he said.

Isn’t that the very essence of the Marxist critique?  That the proletariat does all of the work, creates all of the value, and the beneficiaries won’t pay their fair share?

As documented in my 2012 profile of the Theatre, public money has been a big funding source for the group.  In particular, the state’s Legacy Fund, which grants money from state sales tax revenue to arts and environmental groups, has provided the Theatre with more than $416,000 in direct cash payments since the Fund began,

Fiscal	Grant
Year	Amount	Purpose
2010	39,756	operating support
2011	60,000	arts learning
2011	39,756	operating support
2011	18,000	Are You Thirsty tour
2012	39,604	operating support
2013	84,646	arts access
2013	44,106	operating support
2014	50,434	operating support
2014	40,050	arts learning
Total	$  416,352

Unfortunately, having received state money every year since the Fund began, the Theatre is among a number of organizations thought to have acquired a property right to receive taxpayer funding in perpetuity.

At this point, one has to question the wisdom of continuing to supply taxpayer money to an organization—how shall we say this delicately—for whom money management is not among their strengths.  Instead of counting on “sheer luck” to come through again, perhaps the state should reconsider its policy of throwing good money after bad.

Unexpectedly, Part 2

As yesterday’s announcement that Minnesota has created only 2,900 jobs so far in 2014 makes the rounds, it will be important to put the numbers into a useful context.

For her part, the Democrat appointee in charge of Minnesota’s Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) says she isn't worried,

Minnesota’s economic indicators remain positive, and underlying employment data continue to look strong.

Unfortunately for the Democrats in charge of state government, the underlying data actually look even worse than the headlines.

As the Democrats whistle past the graveyard, touting a falling unemployment rate, the size of the state’s workforce continues to shrink.

That’s how the math works.  We have only created 2,900 jobs in 2014.  To make the unemployment rate fall—as it has since the start of the year—the number of people who have stopped looking for work must be more than the number of jobs created.

The only way to make that happen is for the size of the state’s workforce to shrink.  We have people quitting the workforce at a rate faster than we are creating jobs.

As I noted yesterday, the state’s workforce participation rate has fallen to 70.1 percent, the lowest level since 1980.

Since the peak of the last economic boom (June 2006), the state’s workforce has grown by less than four percent.  In that same time period, the state’s population has grown by something closer to five percent.  In other words, the only way we are keeping the unemployment rate down is to convince more and more Minnesotans not to bother looking for work.

I would not put that into the underlying strength column.

Unexpectedly, Part 1

[Note: this post has been updated to reflect a critique posted on social media.]

The monthly unemployment numbers issued by Minnesota’s Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) are much anticipated as a barometer of the state’s economic health.

This month's report contained the disappointing news that Minnesota lost 4,200 jobs during the month of July and the further bad news that the June number had been revised downward by 3,600.  In summary, we now believe that 7,800 fewer Minnesotans are employed than we thought were employed a month ago.

For its part, the agency was quick to distance itself from its own numbers,

According to DEED officials, recent divergences due to seasonal adjustment lessen confidence that Minnesota’s seasonally adjusted estimates are accurately reflecting recent trends in job growth.

Funny, last month DEED officials expressed no concerns about the data behind the headline “State Gains 8,500 Jobs in June.”

The latest downward revision fulfills a prediction I made last month and marks the fifth consecutive downward revision, as shown on this table,

Reporting	Reported	Later	Actual
Month	Gain	Correction	Gain
July	(4,200)	tbd	(4,200)
June	8,500	(3,600)	4,900
May	10,300	(3,100)	7,200
April	(4,200)	(1,100)	(5,300)
March	2,600	(700)	1,900
February	(100)	(1,100)	(1,200)
January	600	200	800
Total	13,500	(9,400)	4,100

The odds of randomly getting five consecutive downgrades works out to 1 in 32, or only a 3.125 percent chance.  I don’t know about you, but in my world, those odds work out to be a long shot.

[Note:  Twitter commenter Paul (@PJGJ03) suggests that these downward revisions are not random but follow a regular annual pattern, with the consecutive downward revisions ending in August, before turning positive in September.  Which means:  brace for two more months of downward revisions.]

In the last twelve months, DEED reports that Minnesota created 68,344 jobs—with only 4,100 created in the seven months of calendar year 2014, after initial revisions.  This recent trend would seem to indicate something other than seasonal adjustments going on.  The Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting that the fully revised figure for the year so far works out to only 2,900 jobs gained.

[If Paul is right, The 2,900 figure for 2014 jobs may be overly optimistic.  If the expected downward revision of July's job loss is as big as either of the last two monthly revisions, then I don't even want to think about it.  For his part, Paul thinks the July revision will come in at -1,500 and could range from -500 to -3,000.]

If that wasn’t bad enough, the Star Tribune reports that the state’s workforce participation rate has fallen to 70.1 percent, the lowest level in more than 30 years.

As he runs for re-election, Democrat Gov. Mark Dayton’s political allies have been quick to attribute the state’s alleged low unemployment rate to Dayton policies.  Now that the numbers are heading in the opposite direction, we’ll see if the tune changes.

In Part 2, I dive deeper into the numbers.

Election? What Election?

Minnesota’s legacy media have been working hard trying to convince voters that there is no excitement around the Republican challengers in this election cycle.  The subtext is that the Democrats have this round in the bag, so don’t bother with volunteering for or donating to the GOP.

But even careful readers of our state’s newspaper of record—the Minneapolis Star Tribune—would be surprised to find out that there was a primary election today.

The Tuesday print version of the Star Tribune did not include a single news article about the day’s election.  Not one.

The only mention I could find of the event was this blurb on the editorial page urging readers to get out and vote.  The Editorial Board wrote on Election Day,

Experts say that today’s election will be a low-turnout affair, and that when turnout is low, insiders hold sway over the results.  It need not be so. 

True.  But with zero coverage of the event by the paper’s news division, how would outsiders even know that today was the day?

Below Expectations

Once again, the state office of Management and Budget (MMB) has issued a monthly state revenue total that falls below its forecast.  For the month of July, state government revenues fell $69 million below expectations, with individual income tax receipts representing most of the shortfall.  Not a good start to the new fiscal year.

Last month, MMB did not produce a monthly report, issuing instead a recap of the just completed fiscal year, which showed a small surplus.

So, for those scoring at home, July’s report marked the fifth consecutive (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) monthly report that came in below forecast (excluding the June report).  Five out of six months below forecast does not sound like a state with a booming economy.  At some point, all of these monthly shortfalls will add up, and we will be faced with a budget deficit.  At present, they are still being dismissed as “variations” that will even out over time.

Sorry.  If our economy really were the strongest in the nation, then tax collections would be running ahead of forecast every month.

More curious has been the media reaction to this phenomenon, or more accurately, the complete lack of any reaction.  Back in 2009, when we had a similar run of disappointing revenue results, local media used the occasion to bash Republican “cuts only” budgeting.  Now that the regular shortfalls have return, who do the media blame?  Well nobody—certainly not Gov. Dayton’s “taxes only” budget—because they aren’t reporting on it.

In the phrasing of the old Churchillian saying (“A lie can be halfway ‘round the world before the truth has got its boots on”), local media are burying the truth, boots and all.  It seems that they are determined to drag the limp carcass of the Dayton Administration through to a second term come what may.

By the way, I saw Limp Carcass open for Frampton at the Hollywood Bowl back in 1978.

Apparently, MN’s Economy is “Good Enough”

Minnesota’s media and political elites have now decided that the state is fully recovered from the Great Recession of 2008-09. 

“Lowest unemployment in the country,” we're told.  It’s a “strong economy,” they tell us.  So strong, in fact, that state Republicans won’t be allowed to bring up the economy as an election issue this year. 

Yes, Minnesota’s unemployment rate (4.5 percent) is now lower than it was during the depth of the last recession (8.3 percent, June 2009).  Unfortunately for the state’s long-term unemployed, we are still a long way from the low rate enjoyed back in mid-2006 of 3.9 percent, and forget the 2.5 percent level from the late 1990s.

Most of the recent bragging around Minnesota’s economy centers on a single fact:  that Minnesota’s unemployment rate (4.5%) is below that of Wisconsin’s (5.7%).  But Minnesota’s unemployment rate has been lower than Wisconsin’s since February 1997.

I suppose maintaining an advantage into an 18^th year is something to celebrate.  But it’s something like beating your big rival in football, only to discover the win merely secures your second-to-last place position in the league.

It’s worth noting that Minnesota’s job growth during the past year has merely kept pace with the job growth in the rest of the country.  Like the rest of America, much of the improvement in Minnesota’s unemployment rate has not come from the creation of new jobs, but from discouraged workers giving up on the idea of finding employment.

Iowa (4.4%), South Dakota (3.8%), Nebraska (3.5%), and North Dakota (2.7%, the nation’s lowest) all enjoy lower unemployment rates than Minnesota.  We may be beating Wisconsin, but we are losing badly to those states with which we compete for new residents and businesses.

What about that claim that the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro’s unemployment is the nation’s lowest at 4.0 percent?  That’s was May’s number.  In June, we shot back up to 4.5 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.  Even at May’s 4.0 percent figure, we were not keeping up with Des Moines at 3.9%, Omaha’s 3.8%, Sioux Falls’ 3.2%, or Fargo’s 2.5 percent. 

The “nation’s lowest” claim only comes by comparing MSP to the biggest American cities.  If you are a sprinter, you’ll be happy to edge ahead of the fattest guy in the race, but you need to notice that all the other runners have already crossed the finish line.

Rather than comparing Minnesota’s economic performance to the relevant benchmarks, it seems we are determined to find someone, somewhere we can brag over.  Yes, we are doing better than Detroit, but does that really mean we are doing well?