Joel Kotkin and his colleagues at New Geography have produced this ranking of the 51 largest metropolitan areas on the ability to attract high wage professional, scientific and technical services jobs. This is the area where Minneapolis has gone "all in" on the creative class strategy. At this point I think it's fair to say the results are in and they are not good.
The metro area of Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington finished 37th of 51. It's not just about climate, with sun belt cities Birmingham and Memphis finishing 50th and 51st.
Cities in red states dominate the top of the list, taking 8 of the top 9 spots. State capitals like No. 1 Austin and, to a lesser extent, No. 5 Salt Lake City can get away with their liberal quirkiness as they are surrounded by overwhelmingly red states--in a way that a Providence (No. 48) or a Hartford (No. 45) cannot.
Kotkin describes what draws some to No. 2 Jacksonville,
"Jerry Mallot, president of the local business development group Jaxusa Partnership, suggests that low costs, a high rate of housing affordability and Florida’s lack of income tax make Jacksonville attractive to companies seeking to expand or relocate."
Joel's rankings prove exactly the point I was making on the Sue Jeffers radio show earlier this month. In a massive example of cart-horse misplacement, Minneapolis believes that by acquiring the accoutrement of the world-class city--mass transit trains, bike lanes, stadia, museums--we will attract the "creative" class of young, single professionals. Like some South Pacific cargo cult, we apparently do not understand that it is surplus wealth that produces the trinkets of culture and not the other way around. It is like thinking that building the Colosseum is what made the Roman Empire great. Leaders of the Twin Cities region suffer from a lower-grade strain of the "world class city complex" afflicting second-tier cities like Chicago.
Kotkin's rankings reveal a different and more useful path to urban proserity: create the wealth first and then you get the stuff. Urban hipsters may love trains and are willing to pay premium prices for access to trendy transit, but they have to have the money first.
No. 10, Portland, OR, is the "evolved" city that Minneapolis most wants to become, as we openly envy the land of Portlandia.
Forbes takes a deeper look, ranking the top 200 cities for business and career prospects. Of the top 200, Minneapolis ranked a dismal 156th in cost of doing business. Minneapolis ranks well above No. 197 San Francisco, but well below No. 106 Portland. In chasing Portland's amenities, Minneapolis cannot give up 50 places on the cost part of the equation.
Minneapolis needs to understand that it's about more than $50,000 water fountains: the city needs to offer good value, too.
Great points.
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