The main, above-the-fold headline on page one of the October 29, 2011, edition of Minneapolis Star Tribune is a self-congratulatory piece on the success of the Twin Cities area in attracting young professionals from elsewhere. (“Young, educated flock to the Twin Cities”)
And by the Twin Cities, they really mean central Minneapolis
I have previously written about the misguided emphasis that Minneapolis puts on its status as a “cool city” and the attraction it holds for the “creative class” and “knowledge workers.” But here I want to dig a little deeper on why this focus on the “creative class” of twenty-something college grads represents a bad long-term economic development strategy.
Flawed Theory of Economic Development
The idea seems to be that to succeed as a community, we need to prevail in attracting “creative-class young people” because, “We can't attract or help companies expand here in our region if we don't have workers.”
Surely this isn’t about merely collecting drones to populate the corporate/non-profit/public sector cube farms.
Don’t worry, the Star Tribune assures us that the stakes are much higher, “it's about maintaining youthfulness, period, at a time when the number of over-45 Americans is climbing 18 times faster than is the number of those under 45.”
"There is a growing divide between areas that are experiencing gains or losses in their younger populations," Brookings Institution demographer William Frey reported last summer. "Large stretches of the nation are sustaining only meager growth, or even declines, in their youth population."
The solution to declines in youth population, apparently, is to target the “Creative Class” (a concept popularized by the sociologist Richard Florida). The Star Tribune tells us that,
“Just one quirky nerd with a concept for a website can create multibillion-dollar firms these days, and one survey suggested that educated young people are twice as likely to choose a city for its quality of life than just go any old place as long as it has a job. To that end, Minnesota
What has Minnesota
Let’s be more specific. Minnesota may have “lavished billions” on these amenities, but for the most part, these attractions have been built in the core cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul
In any event, to paraphrase the cliché, you go with the strategy you have. So, are Minneapolis-St. Paul and the other “Creative Class” cities actually succeeding in the “youthfulness game”?
Who Are the “Creative Class” Competitors?
The Star Tribune includes a table with the article comparing Minneapolis-St. Paul with the other Kiplinger.com’s “Ten Great Cities for Young Adults.” Those other nine include Atlanta , Baton Rouge , Chicago , Cincinnati , Colorado Springs, Washington DC , Madison , New York , and Seattle San Francisco , Boston , and Los Angeles as “more happening” and Portland and Denver Pittsburgh , Philadelphia , and Austin , Texas Columbus , Ohio
Pooling these cities together, gives us a list of 20 competitors, as follows,
Two questions arise. First, how do we compare? Minneapolis must be succeeding against all those places that these young adults have fled, such as Washington , DC , Kansas City , Moorhead , and Ft. Meyers
Second, how are the “creative class” cities faring against towns following other growth models?
Another Model: Focus on Job Growth
For a different take, Forbes columnist Joel Kotkin produces an annual list of “The Best Cities for Job Growth.” His 2011 Large Cities Rankings produces a very different set of rankings than those focused on “hip cities” or young adults. His top 5 large cities include four Texas cities (Austin ranks No. 1), plus, surprisingly, New Orleans
Likewise, those towns that combine large state universities and state governments fare better than average, with Austin
Minneapolis-St. Paul? We rank a disappointing 46th out of 65 ranked as large cities.
The other competitors show a wide range of results. New York ranks 9th, Philadelphia 10th, Pittsburgh 11th, Boston 13th, Denver 24th, Seattle 32nd, San Francisco 33rd, Portland 35th, Chicago 41st, Cincinnati 49th, Atlanta 52nd, and Los Angeles stands 60th.
In his Midsized Cities Rankings, three of the top four are found in Texas Madison ranks 15th, Baton Rouge 45th, and Colorado Springs
How did the “losers” of this “deadly serious” race fare? We already mentioned the young woman who moved here from DC, which holds two spots in the top ten in job growth. The young woman from Kansas City left a town ranked 45th, the young man from Ft. Myers Moorhead , Minnesota Fargo
Speaking of small cities, Texas claims three of the top four on that list, with oil-rich Bismarck , North Dakota
Everything’s Bigger in Texas
In reference to the stunning success of uncool Texas
Whatever they are drinking in Texas California California officials, led by Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, recently trekked to the Lone Star State to learn possible lessons about what drives job creation.
Just so we are clear that it’s not all about the oil, here are some job growth rankings for cities not in the oil belt: Nashville, 8th (and with lots of entertainment options), Salt Lake City, 20th, Orlando, 25th.
And it’s not just about the Sun Belt. Here are some northern and mid-western cities that score better than MSP in job growth: Rochester , NY , 16th, Buffalo , NY , 18th, Omaha , 21st, and Milwaukee
Watch Out for the Smaller Cities
While MSP is focused on beating national competitors in the “Creative Class” game, a number of smaller, regional competitors are outperforming us in job growth. I’ve already mentioned Omaha , Milwaukee , Kansas City, and Chicago St. Louis
On the Midsized list, we have Lincoln at 11th, Green Bay 16th, and Des Moines Dubuque at 5th, Grand Forks 30th, Oshkosh 33rd, and Iowa City
Perhaps we should pay less attention to what is happening on the coasts, and more on what is happening next door.
Buy hey, 2011 job growth isn’t everything. We are playing the long game here. Surely those cities doing the best job of attracting young adults are winning at growing their young populations. Right? Unfortunately, the data suggest otherwise.
Needed: Job Growth and Young Families
Merely having lots of smart, twenty-something adults around does not guarantee the future. Joel Kotkin and his colleague, demographer Wendell Cox, recently studied top cities for growth in families. Not surprisingly, their list correlates highly with Kotkin’s list of top job growth cities. The Texas cities are on the list, as are the Sun Belt destinations of Raleigh and Charlotte , NC
Digging deeper, though, Kotkin and Cox find that,
“Overall, the places with the absolute fewest kids ages 5 to 17 tend to be dense core cities. Children constitute barely 1 in 10 residents in the city of Seattle San Francisco , Washington and Boston
Kotkin adds, regarding his rankings of family growth,“Other areas losing youngsters included the nation’s three legitimate megacities—Los Angeles (No. 44), New York (No. 38) and Chicago (No. 35)—as well as areas long associated with the migration of the “young and restless,” including Boston (No. 37) and San Francisco
Here’s how our 20 “Young Adult” competitor cities rank on family growth,
(Baton Rouge , Colorado Springs, and Madison
Again, it is not just about the oil belt and the sun belt, as other models seem to be working. For example,
Flight to Suburbia
If the young, educated professionals that we are attracting are not likely to hang around and form families, then “youthfulness” will not be served, in the long run. Further still, if the young are not sticking around the core cities, but are moving to the suburbs and exurbs, than those expensive investments in downtown sports stadia, art palaces, and bike paths would have been for naught.
In fact, Kotkin and Cox have found evidence in the latest census data for just such a conclusion. They found that young people are not opting for the big city as they get older,
“Cox looked at where 25- to 34-year-olds were living in 2000 and compared this to where they were living by 2010, now aged 35 to 44. The results were surprising: In the past 10 years, this cohort’s presence grew 12% in suburban areas while dropping 22.7% in the core cities. Overall, this demographic expanded by roughly 1.8 million in the suburbs while losing 1.3 million in the core cities.”
The hip cities fared even worse,
“More intriguing, and perhaps counter-intuitive, “hip and cool” core cities like San Francisco , New York and Boston New York City
From looking at the data that Kotkin and Cox have assembled, Minneapolis and St. Paul
“These findings should inform the actions of those who run cities. Cities may still appeal to the “young and restless,” but they can’t hold millennials [today’s 25 to 34 year olds] captive forever. Even relatively successful cities have turned into giant college towns and “post-graduate” havens—temporary way stations before people migrate somewhere else. This process redefines cities from enduring places to temporary resorts.”
