Thursday, February 10, 2011

Budget Deficits and the National Debt, Part 1

On a slightly different subject, all this talk about budget deficits at the state and federal levels jogged loose a thought that I have had for years, but cannot explain.

As in the debate on raising the Federal Debt ceiling, we speak of the national debt and the annual budget deficit, interchangeably, as is there is some connection between the two.  In my simple, primate brain I think there should be.  My training in introductory economics and accounting reinforces this brain-stem level reaction.

So explain this to me:  after years of those vaunted budget surpluses during the Clinton years, why did the total Federal debt never decline, not one year.  I recall reading about a panicked Federal Reserve, worried about how they would conduct monetary policy in a world with no federal borrowing.

Here is the data, all from the White House website in $Billions:

Year:      Surplus or Deficit (-)      Gross Debt at Year End
1997                  -72.8                          5,369.2                        
1998                   28.5                          5,478.2
1999                   70.6                          5,605.5
2000                 172.2                          5,628.7
2001                   25.3                          5,769.9
2002                -322.7                          6,198.4

With current debt levels at $14 trillion, clearly the growth in the debt slowed during the "surplus" years of the late 1990's.  But why did the debt not actually fall?  What am I missing?

Why do I care?  Well, if, in the unlikely event, we ever get the Federal Budget under control, we have an expectation the Federal Debt will also be addressed.  Perhaps not.

No comments:

Post a Comment