Like a broken record, the state office of Management and
Budget (MMB) has issued another monthly state revenue total that falls below
its forecast. For the month of August
2014, state government revenues fell $10 million
below expectations, with individual income tax receipts representing most of
the shortfall.
For the first two months (July and August) of the new 2014-15
fiscal year, revenues are running 3.3 percent below forecast, with collections
falling $79 million short, so far.
So, for those scoring at home,
July’s report marked the sixth consecutive (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6) monthly
report that came in below forecast. (There was not a monthly report issued
for June.)
Six out of seven months below forecast does not sound like a
state with a
booming economy. At some point, all
of these monthly shortfalls will add up, and we will be faced with a new budget
deficit. At present, they are still
being dismissed as “variations” that will even out over time. Quoting MMB,
All results are preliminary and subject
to revision. Monthly revenue variances
should be interpreted with caution. Wide
swings in variances may be caused by variations in the rate at which receipts
are received and refunds are issued.
I don’t know about “wide swings,” but for 2014 all of the
variations have been in the same direction (down). If our economy really were the strongest in
the nation, then tax collections would be running ahead of forecast every month.
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