Apparently, MN’s Economy is “Good Enough”

Minnesota’s media and political elites have now decided that the state is fully recovered from the Great Recession of 2008-09. 

“Lowest unemployment in the country,” we're told.  It’s a “strong economy,” they tell us.  So strong, in fact, that state Republicans won’t be allowed to bring up the economy as an election issue this year. 

Yes, Minnesota’s unemployment rate (4.5 percent) is now lower than it was during the depth of the last recession (8.3 percent, June 2009).  Unfortunately for the state’s long-term unemployed, we are still a long way from the low rate enjoyed back in mid-2006 of 3.9 percent, and forget the 2.5 percent level from the late 1990s.

Most of the recent bragging around Minnesota’s economy centers on a single fact:  that Minnesota’s unemployment rate (4.5%) is below that of Wisconsin’s (5.7%).  But Minnesota’s unemployment rate has been lower than Wisconsin’s since February 1997.

I suppose maintaining an advantage into an 18^th year is something to celebrate.  But it’s something like beating your big rival in football, only to discover the win merely secures your second-to-last place position in the league.

It’s worth noting that Minnesota’s job growth during the past year has merely kept pace with the job growth in the rest of the country.  Like the rest of America, much of the improvement in Minnesota’s unemployment rate has not come from the creation of new jobs, but from discouraged workers giving up on the idea of finding employment.

Iowa (4.4%), South Dakota (3.8%), Nebraska (3.5%), and North Dakota (2.7%, the nation’s lowest) all enjoy lower unemployment rates than Minnesota.  We may be beating Wisconsin, but we are losing badly to those states with which we compete for new residents and businesses.

What about that claim that the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro’s unemployment is the nation’s lowest at 4.0 percent?  That’s was May’s number.  In June, we shot back up to 4.5 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.  Even at May’s 4.0 percent figure, we were not keeping up with Des Moines at 3.9%, Omaha’s 3.8%, Sioux Falls’ 3.2%, or Fargo’s 2.5 percent. 

The “nation’s lowest” claim only comes by comparing MSP to the biggest American cities.  If you are a sprinter, you’ll be happy to edge ahead of the fattest guy in the race, but you need to notice that all the other runners have already crossed the finish line.

Rather than comparing Minnesota’s economic performance to the relevant benchmarks, it seems we are determined to find someone, somewhere we can brag over.  Yes, we are doing better than Detroit, but does that really mean we are doing well?