Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Reynolds' Law

Glenn Reynolds, a Tennessee law school professor best known for his blog Instapundit has promulgated Reynolds' law,

“The government decides to try to increase the middle class by subsidizing things that middle class people have: If middle-class people go to college and own homes, then surely if more people go to college and own homes, we’ll have more middle-class people.  But homeownership and college aren’t causes of middle-class status, they’re markers for possessing the kinds of traits—self-discipline, the ability to defer gratification, etc.—that let you enter, and stay, in the middle class.  Subsidizing the markers doesn’t produce the traits; if anything, it undermines them.”

Correlation does not equal causation.  It's a form of the Cargo Cult problem, where Pacific islanders built ersatz airstrips in a deluded effort to encourage the "cargo" to return.  Allies fighting the World War II brought in supplies and material that were shared with the islanders.  When the Allies left, the islanders tried to draw them back building fake airplanes, control towers and the like.  But the air traffic control tower was only an accessory to material wealth, it did not create it.

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