DEED’s Job Numbers Don’t Add Up

Each month the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) issues a press release announcing the number of jobs created in the previous month by the state’s economy.

And each month local media hail the latest figure as further proof (as if it were needed) of the genius of the current Democrat-run state government.

For June, DEED reported that the state gained 8,500 jobs for the month (3,900 created by the government, by the way).  DEED also reported that the state gained 10,700 jobs in the first six months of 2014.

Doing the arithmetic, that total means Minnesota gained 8,500 jobs in June, but a mere 2,200 jobs in the five months of January through May, combined.

Each month DEED also reports on the jobs created in the previous 12 months, for a rolling look at the number of jobs created for a year-long period.  For the 12 months ending June 2014, DEED reports Minnesota created almost 53,800 jobs.  That figure would mean that we’d created 43,100 jobs in the six month of July through December 2013, but a mere 10,700 jobs in the most recent six months.  Rather than suggesting an economic boom, those numbers indicate a real weakness in our state’s economy.

But consider this anomaly:

Reporting		Jobs Gained
Month	Month	YTD	Last 12 Mo.
June	8,500	10,700	53,779
May	10,300	---	45,617
April	(4,200)	---	41,934
March	2,600	---	41,582
February	(100)	---	44,714
January	600	---	52,160
Total	17,700

Adding together the number of jobs created each month in 2014, as reported by DEED, produces a total of 17,700 jobs for the year so far.  So that means that sometime during the last few months, 7,000 jobs have vanished from the official state rolls.

Here’s a prediction:  that 8,500 number for June will be quietly revised downward.  That’s been the pattern of late:  May’s job gain number was revised down from 10,300 to 7,200.  April’s loss of 4,200 jobs was revised down to an even bigger loss of 5,300.  The originally reported March gain of 2,600 jobs was revised down to 1,900 the following month.  DEED marked down the February loss of 100 jobs it originally reported by a further 1,100.

DEED actually revised the January gain of 600 upward by 200 the following month.  For those keeping score at home, we’ve had four consecutive months of downward revisions, with the average monthly downgrade being 1,500 jobs.  That’s where 6,000 of the 7,000 missing jobs have vanished, but 1,000 are still not accounted for.

If we were flipping coins, the odds of four consecutive downward revisions would be 1 chance in 16, or 6.25 percent.  If it were a race horse, I wouldn’t bet it to show.

At the length truth will out.