Spinning Unemployment Rates

So there I am this morning, eating my breakfast, reading the paper version of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.  The above-the-fold headline blares,

DOW HITS ALL-TIME HIGH;

STATE ‘ROBUST’ ON JOBS

So I think, “Hey, good news on the economy!”  I check out the headline on the “robust jobs” and read, “In Minnesota: The addition of 12,100 jobs in January comes on top of other positive gains.”  Great, more good news!  I wonder how much the unemployment rate has fallen.

So I read the story, and find out that “Minnesota has recovered nearly 90 percent of the jobs lost since the Great Recession, as the latest jobs report shows the state’s economy is on a roll.”  Wow!  It just keeps getting better.

But then I think, aren’t we five years into the recession?  Just 90 % ?  When are we going to get back all of the jobs lost, plus produce additional jobs for the new workers who have appeared in the past five years? 

Still, I wonder, “Did the unemployment rate fall below 5 percent?”  (It bottomed out at 3.9 percent in mid-2006.)

As instructed, I turn to page A7 of the newspaper.  I read all kinds of stats, see quotes from various people, and then—at the very bottom of the page, tucked in the corner beside a department store ad—I see a number: 5.6 percent.  In the third-to-last paragraph of the story, I find out that the state’s unemployment rate actually went up last month, rising from 5.4 percent to 5.6 percent.  Huh?

Here comes the spin,

“But while the state’s economy is on the mend, [unnamed] economists warned Tuesday that it could take a while for the unemployment rate to stabilize.  An improving economy means that thousands of jobless workers will resume their searches again and will be considered part of the official labor force.  If there aren’t enough positions for them to fill, then unemployment could jump.”

Really?  That may even be true, but never in the history of this great nation has a Republican President or a Republican governor gotten away with that spin.

Under a Governor Emmer or Horner, the headline would have read this morning, DOW HITS ALL-TIME HIGH; STATE FALLS BEHIND ON JOBS.  The emphasis would be on the rising percentage, not the raw numbers of jobs created.

Digging deep into the actual data released yesterday, the real unemployment story is much more disturbing than the spin.  Not only did the state’s unemployment rate go up last month, but the rate in January 2013 was actually higher than it was a full year ago, even while the national unemployment rate has fallen in that time.

Now the Star Tribune’s website is slightly more balanced, with the headline reading, "Minnesota adds 12,100 jobs in January, jobless rate ticks up".  But the damage was done, even before I had my coffee.