Aerial View of State Capitol

Taken as my brother flew over the building on Wednesday evening.

KSTP--Ch. 5--On Inverted Block Rates Bill

Last night, the local ABC affiliate--KSTP-5--ran a report on the bill introduced by state Sen. Michelle Benson (R-Ham Lake) to repeal inverted block rate pricing for natural gas service (Senate File 817).

Mark Glaess on "Good Intentions"

Mark Glaess wrote this column, which I reproduce with his permission:

"The Economic Consequences of Good Intentions"

"Not long ago, San Francisco officials forced “low-flow” toilets on the populace to save water. However, these water-saving devices are not producing sufficient surge with each flush to keep the solid waste pipes under the streets of San Francisco from becoming constipated.  To address this problem, the city just ordered $13 million worth of Clorox to pour down the drains to kill the smell.  This is what’s known as the “law of unintended consequences” or better yet, “Murphy’s Law,” which says: “Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.”

There is yet another related law called “The Law of Good Intentions.”  This is how that works:

In 2007 Governor Pawlenty promoted renewable energy and conservation mandates; all great laws of very good intentions.  Four years later every Minnesotan has higher energy rates as a result.  We now know that the wind mandate has cost this state close to $100 million because that breeze occurs when it is least needed.  Those costs will only get worse as the renewable mandate increases until we hit 25 percent by 2025.  The mandate to reduce energy consumption by 1.5 annually cost 20 cents to save 11 cents. Mandating conservation when utilities are generating more electricity than the market needs makes that conservation less and less cost-effective.

Wind and solar require significant fossil fuel-based backup power sources to accommodate variability in the availability of wind and sun for power conversion. A recent study by the Beacon Hill Institute in Boston and Robert Bryce (author of “Power Hungry”) found that wind power actually increases pollution and greenhouse gas emissions due to these required backup systems.  Firms with high electricity usage could move their production, and emissions, out of Minnesota to locations with lower electricity prices and less uneconomic regulatory regimes. Exporting energy production and jobs will not reduce global emissions, but rather send production, jobs and capital investment outside the state, or even outside the country where net global emissions would almost surely be increased

It is, or should be, a given that electric cooperatives are the nation’s leaders in energy conservation and reducing pollutants.  Since 1991, co-ops have offered their members the option for the co-op to “control” their air conditioners, water heaters and other large electric appliances. For that you see portions of your electric bill reduced by 40-50 percent.  By controlling electric loads, the co-ops collectively have shelved the need to build a 500 MW power plant. That has saved the state’s cooperative customers over $1 billion.

Not everyone has been disadvantaged however. The San Francisco-based Energy Foundation has provided millions of dollars to Minnesota’s environmental groups like the Izaak Walton League, Fresh Energy and the Blue-Green Alliance to oppose clean coal-powered generation in favor of increasingly expensive energy efficiency and cost-prohibitive renewable energy laws.  So you could say that while the average Minnesotan has seen their electric rate increase because of these laws of good intentions, the environmental community that employs some 70 lobbyists in St. Paul have made out quite well."

Documentary on "Waning" Suburbs to Air

Because all of the problems of the core cities have now been solved, PBS is airing a documentary on the "waning" suburbs, reports Cynthia Boyd on MinnPost.  Local PBS station TPT will show "The New Metropolis" at 8 p.m. on Sunday, May 1.

I look forward to an even-handed, non-judgemental portrayal of life beyond the city limits.  What?  Cynical you say?  Check out the slide show on The New Metropolis' website.  It alternates "Father Knows Best"-type photos, with shots of decay and decline.  Scenes not to be found, in say, Detroit?

Inverted Block Rate Hearing in State Senate

Jon Miltimore reports on yesterday's state Senate committee hearing on the inverted block rates bill.

Thanks to Tom Hanson and Paul Kohls for a Great Event

Tonight, the local branch (Edina and west Bloomington) of the Republican Party (Senate District 41) hosted former Pawlenty Budget Commissioner Tom Hanson and former state Rep. Paul Kohls (R-Victoria) for a forum on the state budget situation.

Both Tom and Paul did a great job with their presentations and answering questions from our group.  We are all much more informed on the budget and the pitfalls of getting to a deal in the final 27 days of the legislative session.  And thanks to the Republicans and guests of SD41 for filling the room on a cold, windy night!

Tom Steward on Inverted Block Rates

Tom Steward of the Freedom Foundation of Minnesota blogs about the controversial reason why some customers' natural gas bills skyrocketed this past winter:  inverted block rates.

The theory behind inverted block rates centers on the idea that the more fuel you use the more you should pay.  It's like charging a Prius owned $2 a gallon for gasoline but charging a Hummer owner $6 a gallon for gasoline.

Now some customers are coming forward, complaining that they have the most efficient gas appliances available, but their bills are going up simply because they made the mistake of owning a bigger house or having a larger family.

Undernews: Ghost Cities of China

Yesterday, I linked to Brett Arends' MarketWatch column on projections that China's economy will pass America's in the next five years.

Maybe.

Having looked at the demography, I agree with Mark Steyn that China will grow old before it grows rich.

I have been to a number of academic seminars and have read a number of articles on the urbanization of China.  Whole cities will be created out of nothing to accommodate the droves of people leaving the countryside for the promise of a better life in an urban setting.

The Chinese are following the Field of Dreams principal of "build it and they will come."  Whole cities have been built, but stand empty, awaiting the droves to arrive.  Say what you will, at the height of our property bubble, at most a scattering of empty condo towers would scar the landscape.  Not whole cities sitting empty.  What impact will the bursting of the Chinese property bubble have on the larger world economy?

Check out this undated photo essay in Time magazine on the Ghost Cities of China.

IMF: Age of America Nears End

Only if we let it.  For most of today, Drudge has been featuring the above headline as his top item, linking to a Brett Arends Wall Street Journal MarketWatch column on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report.  Brett's reading of the IMF report is that China's economy will pass America's in 2016.

The Cost of Minnesota's Renewable Energy Standard

Catching up from last week:

Peter J. Nelson, of Minnesota's Center of the American Experiment posts on "The High Cost of Minnesota's Renewable Energy Standard" on the Center's new blog.  He discusses the new study put out by the Minnesota Free Market Institute.

Which study, by the way, was discussed last week in Finance & Commerce (subscription required).

Study on MN's Renewable Energy Standard Released

The Minnesota Free Market Institute has released a new study on the effects of Minnesota's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS).

Key findings,

"The study found that Minnesotans would pay $15 billion more for electricity between 2016 and 2025 because of the state’s RPS, as alternative energy is more costly and unreliable than conventional sources such as coal or natural gas.  Meanwhile there will be negligible environmental benefit, as it is unlikely that use of renewables – especially wind, which the state mandates as a large percentage of its RPS – actually reduces greenhouse gas emissions.  The study was prepared by economists at the Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University in Boston."

Niall Ferguson on Decline

“Having grown up in a declining empire, I do not recommend it. It's just not a lot of fun actually, decline."


--At the Aspen Ideas Festival, July 6, 2010.


Link to the video


I stumbled upon Niall's quote in reading Mark Steyn's "Happy Warrior" column in National Review.  Mark includes a number of colorful metaphors illustrating Britain's decline as an empire, but I most enjoyed this one, which gives his entry its headline ("Downhill Only"),


"In pre-Thatcher Britain, the escalators seized up, and stayed unrepaired for months on end.  Eventually, someone would start them up again, only for them to break down 48 hours later and be out of service for another 18 months.  It was always the up escalators.  You were in a country that could only go downhill: All chutes, no ladders."

Follow the Money in Action: Media

In his weekly column for MinnPost (McKnight Foundation grantee), Don Shelby writes a puff piece for the head of the local non-profit group Fresh Energy (McKnight Foundation grantee).  Of course, this was all brought to my attention by the News Watch feature of the Minnesota Environmental Partnership (McKnight Foundation grantee).

Willmar, Minnesota, Rebuilding from the Bottom Up

One of the early inspirations for my "Rebuilding America from the Bottom Up" campaign was my encounter with the Citizens Energy Plan of Willmar, Minnesota.  Willmar is a city of 20,000 in the west central part of the state, county seat for Kandiyohi County.

The Citizens Energy Plan's collection of otherwise ordinary citizens set for themselves the ambitious mission,

"Through citizen and community engagement...to develop and to have enacted into law a national energy plan..."

One of their leaders, Lee Byberg later mounted a run for Congress in 2010.

Why bring up all this ancient history now?  I ran across this article in the West Central Tribune on a Tea Party rally held in Willmar on Monday.  It quotes former candidate for Governor, Tom Emmer, and Lee Byberg, who is planning another run for Congress.

We could do worse than to nominate Willmar as our Runnymede or our Concord--otherwise inconspicuous places where something momentous began.  In my trips to this little burg, I have been impressed by the level of energy and enthusiasm present, looking to be channeled into positive change.
I spoke at one of their events back in September 2009, in addition to another event I did in Willmar back in July of last year.

Undernews 2: Re-Nationalization of Europe

Picking up on the theme I began in this post, I link to this post by John Derbyshire of National Review noting that the Re-Nationalization of Europe is picking up steam.  It seems that we've gone beyond the closing of the Franco-Italian border to other signs that the European project is running its course.

John reports that Germany is joining France in refusing entry of refugees of the late troubles in north Africa who pass through Italy.

Flashback: Walter Russell Mead and his Crystal Ball

In his post yesterday reflecting on Palm Sunday (worth reading), Walter Russell Mead links to a series of posts he did in early 2010, predicting ten trends for the next decade under the theme of the accelerating pace of change.  All are worth reading, but perhaps my favorite is number 4, which touches on themes of direct democracy.

Mead writes, "Generally speaking, the smaller a political unit, the less vexing democracy turns out to be."

Human Capital Bonds 5

Star Tribune columnist Lori Sturdevant writes about the Human Capital Bonds concept in the Sunday paper.  She credits Steven Rothschild, former General Mills executive, with developing the idea in Minnesota.  But she also mentions my state representative--Keith Downey (R-Edina)--and his role in getting the idea included in legislation.  We are still a long way from having a bill signed by the Governor, but let's keep rooting for Steven and Keith.

He Who Knows Nothing, Doubts Nothing

The science is settled.

(Via The Soup, basic cable clip show)

"The Ohio Farmer" Speaks for Us All

Via Steven Hayward and Power Line, let me also link to the Ohio Farmer, whose "Letters from an Ohio Farmer" are the new "must read".

Follow the Money in Action: Coal Power

This afternoon, the state Senate voted to overturn Minnesota's ban on new coal power plants, on a bipartisan vote of 42-18.  The Star Tribune's initial coverage of the vote contains three quotes:  one from the bill's Republican author, one from a Democrat opposed to the bill, and one from the Izaak Walton League.  As I have documented, the League is currently being paid to oppose coal power in Minnesota, by the San Francisco-based Energy Foundation, a fact not disclosed by the Star Tribune.

The Associated Press' coverage has a little more detail and quotes the same two state Senators.  Instead of the League, it quotes someone from Fresh Energy, another current non-profit recipient of Energy Foundation money to "advance clean energy policy in Minnesota."  The Foundation will be pleased that Fresh Energy's spokesman dutifully worked the words "clean energy" into his quote.  The AP does not disclose this grant to its readers.

Victor Davis Hanson on California Decline

Victor Davis Hanson continues to chronicle the decline and fall of the once great state of California.  I just spent a few days earlier this month on the southern California coast.  It was so breathtakingly beautiful and so apparently wealthy (judging by the cars and houses I saw) that I can't believe its inhabitants are so hell bent on throwing it all away.

But what I experienced was the wealthy sliver of the population for whom the Golden State is still a paradise.  It's the strivers, the entrepreneurs, the middle classes, and the merely affluent that are leaving in droves.

Great VDH quote,

"I could go on. But you get the picture that we are living on the fumes of a rich state that our forefathers brilliantly exploited, and now there is not much energy left in the fading exhaust to keep us going.

"I see California in terms now of the razor’s edge with disaster not far in either direction. A postmodern affluent lifestyle hangs in the balance here without a margin of error."

Nassim Taleb Interview on Black Swans

At the Wharton School.

Key quote,

"I hope the message will finally get across because I haven't succeeded yet. People talk about black swans but they don't talk about robustness, which is the real lesson of the black swans."

(Via Real Clear Politics)

Walter Russell Mead Sends Good News from Brazil

...on the environment, of all subjects.  The Brazilians are making great strides in food production.

And it turns out the Patagonian sheep are not going blind from the hole in the ozone layer.  Whew!

But this lengthy quote is just too good to pass up,

"I actually continue to believe that the climate is indeed trending warmer, and lacking the scientific chops to challenge the climatologists at their own game, I accept as a working hypothesis that increased greenhouse gases emitted as byproducts of human activity bears some responsibility for the change.

"But that is cold comfort indeed when every week brings new evidence that the clueless green lobby (despite the intelligence and even wisdom found among some serious environmentalists) is not only its own worst enemy, its policy incompetence combined with its demagogic panic mongering makes it a menace to global well-being.  If climate change proceeds far enough to cause serious problems, future historians are likely to assign much of the blame to this generation of incompetent green policy hacks, hot headed alarmists, woolly-headed ego trippers..., clueless foundation staff and direct mail scaremongers who between them have muddied the waters of the climate debate and wasted precious years and resources."

Cometh the Hour, Cometh the Man

A Green Big Brother

The local CBS affiliate in Boston reports that efforts to use thermal imaging cameras to catch "energy hogs" are capturing more than just heat losses from homes.  These cameras are also capturing images of people moving about inside their homes and are raising privacy concerns about the use of such cameras to promote energy efficiency.

(Via Instapundit)

I, Toaster

Another recommendation made by Jonah Goldberg in his talk last night is the experiment of the English designer Thomas Thwaites in attempting to make a toaster from scratch.  Mr. Thwaites discusses his efforts in this video of a TED talk.

Mr. Thwaites tries to literally act out the premise of the essay "I, Pencil" by Leonard Read.  Thwaites mines the ore, smelts the iron, casts the copper, etc., trying to recreate by hand the £4 product of a modern civilization.  He fails, but the attempt is a noble effort to illustrate a larger point.

Recommended Reading

One reading that Jonah Goldberg recommended in his speech last night at Coffman Union was the transcript of a speech given by the late author Michael Crichton ("Jurassic Park") at the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco on September 15, 2003.

The premise of Mr. Crichton's speech was that modern environmentalism had become a religion.  For my taste, the theory doesn't completely map with reality, but he does make two points that are worth dwelling upon.

1.  Modern urban man entertains dangerous delusions about the extent to which nature can be "tamed". 

Says Mr. Crichton,

"Well-to-do, educated people in an urban environment experience the ability to fashion their daily lives as they wish.  They buy clothes that suit their taste, and decorate their apartments as they wish.  Within limits, they can contrive a daily urban world that pleases them.  But the natural world is not so malleable.  On the contrary, it will demand that you adapt to it-and if you don't, you die.  It is a harsh, powerful, and unforgiving world, that most urban westerners have never experienced."

2.  We need to wring the emotionalism out of environmentalism and bring back science, with all of its messy trial-and-error and verification:

"Our record in the past, for example managing national parks, is humiliating.  Our fifty-year effort at forest-fire suppression is a well-intentioned disaster from which our forests will never recover. We need to be humble, deeply humble, in the face of what we are trying to accomplish. We need to be trying various methods of accomplishing things. We need to be open-minded about assessing results of our efforts, and we need to be flexible about balancing needs."

Latest Legislative Update is Available

My latest update for the Minnesota Free Market Institute is up.

CFACT Hosts Jonah Goldberg at Coffman Union

CFACT (Collegians For A Constructive Tomorrow) did a fabulous job this evening hosting NRO's Jonah Goldberg at the University of Minnesota's Coffman Memorial Union.

Jonah was very funny and spoke entirely on climate and energy issues, except for the completely off-topic question that I asked, which he still did a great job answering.

Wed. Citizens League Event at Bakken Museum

On Wednesday, I will be appearing on a panel at the Citizens League event kicking off their Electrical Energy Project.  The program starts at 5 pm and will go a quick hour and 1/4.

The event will be at the Bakken Museum of Electricity on the western shore of beautiful Lake Calhoun in Minneapolis.

Human Capital Bonds 4

My state representative, Keith Downey (R-Edina) had a big win this week when his "human capital bond" idea was included in the human services budget passed by the state House.  It is only a $20 million pilot-project, and there is no guarantee it will be signed into law, but it's a start.

Bob DeBoer at the Citizens League policy blog (April 7 entry) does yeoman's work in straightening out the Star Tribune article I link to, above.

Further reading:  see the Citizens League Minnesota Journal Nov/Dec 2010 cover story for a primer on the concept of "Human Capital Performance Bonds".

Event 3: Citizens League Kickoff of Electric Energy Project

Next Wednesday (April 13) I will be attending the Kickoff of the Citizens League project on the electric utility industry in Minnesota.  It will be held at the Bakken Museum in Minneapolis, a unique venue that deserves a visit regardless of the reason.

Undernews: France Closes Italian Border

One of our favorite people, Mickey Kaus, is credited with inventing/popularizing the concept the of "the undernews" (stories largely ignored by big media, but explored by alternative media).  My candidate for such a story is this one from today's Wall Street Journal on the closure by France of part if its border with Italy.  (Yes, I am aware that the WSJ is "big media"). 

The border closure has to do with refugees from north Africa, fleeing the recent unpleasantness, seeking to use Italy as a route into France.  What struck me about the story is how this unilateral action by France flies in the face of what I understood to be the raison d'être of the European Union.  If one state feels free to close its border with another member country, then what is the point of the EU, again?

When I saw this article, it struck me on two counts, (1) it won't get much play in the media because of all the other stories in the news this week, and (2) it has the potential to be a major milestone in the disintegration of the EU, one that will only be recognized in hindsight.

Update 4/18/2011--See this post by National Review's John Derbyshire on the topic.

Town Hall Meeting in St. Cloud, Saturday Morning

State. Rep. King Banaian and others are hosting a Town Hall Meeting for Senate Districts 14 and 15 this Saturday in St. Cloud at the Whitney Senior Center from 9 to 11 a.m.

Event 2: St. Paul, "Reinventing Environmentalism"

For my second event, I will be speaking at the Reinventing Environmentalism conference in St. Paul this Saturday.

Joe Soucheray on The New Immobility

The Pioneer Press goes a little way in making up for the last item by publishing a column by Joe Soucheray, on the disruption wrought by St. Paul light rail construction, "There goes the skyway, here comes the train. And the lies."

So says Joe, "You cannot improve mobility by closing a skyway."

Delusion is a river running through St. Paul

Amazingly, someone was able to look at this picture from the 2010 census:

...and conclude that Minnesota suburbs and exurbs are dead and will never return.  The map, put together by the U.S. Census Bureau, shows 2000-2010 population growth, by county.  The dark green areas represent the fastest growth, and are all suburban and exurban counties ringing the Twin Cities metro area.  The green counties, next fastest growth group, are all suburban or exurban counties near the Twin Cities, Rochester, or Fargo, North Dakota.

Somehow, the usually reliable St. Paul Pioneer Press published an article this weekend under the headline  "Suburban growth in Twin Cities loses steam.  It could be gone for good." 

The PP focuses on this graphic, showing population growth trends in the east metro area.  As a St. Paul newspaper, this makes some sense.  A more interesting question may be, "Why has the west metro grown faster than the east metro?".

But how to explain this howler, "In the east metro, most suburbs showed steep drops in population growth rates, while St. Paul's rate slipped only slightly."?  According to the U.S. Census, the population in St. Paul actually fell by 0.7 percent, reversing the growth trend from the previous two decades.  So we are to believe that shifting from population growth to population decline represents a better performance than a drop in population growth.

The PP gives away the real agenda in the first sentence of the article, "Maybe sprawl wasn't such a great idea after all."

Further down, the PP makes this claim, "The suburbs' growth also is declining because demand for their specialty — the single-family house — is falling."  Or rather, the anti-sprawl advocacy group Strong Towns makes the claim.  No figures are given to back up the assertion, only a narrative about high gas prices, etc.  I look forward to the PP dissection of St. Paul's actual decline.  Shouldn't high gas prices have people be flocking to the central city, home of mass transit?

Event 1: Tomorrow (Tuesday) in Le Sueur

I am resuming my travels around the state, speaking to various groups on Energy Issues.  My first stop is tomorrow, in Le Sueur, speaking at the Rotary Club.  The club meets at noon in the Valley Room (in the basement) at the Valley Green Square Mall.

I will be visiting the banks of the mighty Minnesota River in the Valley of the Jolly Green Giant.  I couldn't ask for a better first stop on the Spring/Summer Tour.