Republican moderate—fiscal conservative—pro-business Democrat: we use these terms so casually that at some point they begin to lose meaning, or worse, begin to mislead.
The Disappearing Moderate
Less than a year ago, Gallup conducted a poll of Americans, asking them to self-identify as conservatives, moderates, or liberals on economic and social issues.
On economic issues, conservatives totaled 46 percent, moderates 32 percent, and liberals came in at 20 percent of the population. On social issues, the results were similar, but closer, with conservatives at 38 percent, moderates 31 percent and liberals at 28 percent. I have not seen a similar survey of Minnesotans, but I suspect that our totals would include a few more liberals and fewer conservatives.
Since Gallup starting tracking these labels in 2001, the ranks of both self-identified conservatives and liberals have increased, while the share of moderates has fallen, for both economic and social issues.
Regardless, the question I raise is this: if, for the last dozen years or more, economic conservatives and moderates have combined to form about 75 to 80 percent of the population, how did we end up with a public finance situation that is decidedly liberal?
Minnesota State Government Spending: Highest Ever, By Any Measure
That has certainly been the case here in Minnesota. My friends at the Center of the American Experiment have produced a useful report on Minnesota’s budgeting process (“Minnesota Spending 101: Smart Budgeting for an Era of Limits”), including a history of state spending back to 1960. In the past 50+ years, inflation-adjusted state spending has trended ever-upward, falling only for a few years in the early 1980’s. Even adjusted for inflation, state government spending has increased in every one of the last 30 years.
As a share of the state’s economy (GDP), total state spending (all funds) is likely to set a record in the new budget under consideration at the state legislature. In 2003, the share of the private economy represented by the state budget (all funds) stood at 12 percent. In 2013, the share was, again, at 12 percent. In every way measurable--current dollars, inflation-adjusted dollars, per capita, as a share of state GDP—state government spending has never been greater.
What is a “Fiscal Conservative”?
To paraphrase The Princess Bride, it is conceivable that we are not all working from a common definition when we talk about what it means to be a “fiscal conservative.” So, what does it mean to be a fiscal conservative in Minnesota?
There seems to be a sizable element within our local media and among those who describe themselves as moderates that fiscal conservatism is solely defined by a willingness to raise taxes.
Minnesota’s state constitution requires that the budget must be balanced every year. But budget forecasts look ahead several years (the “out years”). If projected revenues fall short of projected and/or scheduled spending increases, the budget is said to be in deficit. Under this definition of a fiscal conservative, you must be willing to raise taxes enough to cover not just what the state is spending this year, but what the state would like to spend years into the future.
It’s under this definition that someone like former Republican Gov. Arne Carlson can view himself as a fiscal conservative. According to the Center’s budget numbers, every year that Carlson was governor (1991-1999) state spending increased: in current dollars, adjusted for inflation, and per capita (adjusted for inflation). But since Carlson balanced budgets in the out years, he is considered by some to be fiscally conservative, regardless of how large government grew under his watch.
That is how some have come to define the term. For a more recent example, we have the effort to raise sales taxes to stabilize the state's revenue flows, which some labeled as conservative. In this view a fiscal conservative is one who will raise taxes to "structurally" balance the state budget, without regards to the resulting size of government. That’s where the dissonance comes in: otherwise, how can raising taxes and growing government be considered conservative?
In all seriousness, is a fiscal conservative just someone willing to pre-pay for the progressive agenda, as Carlson did? Fast forward to 2013. Both Democrat Governor Mark Dayton and the Democrat-controlled state legislature intend to tax and spend beyond any level that could be considered economically sustainable. If they manage to raise taxes (at least on paper) enough to “balance” the budget in the out years, will their fiscal plan be considered “conservative”?
For me, any reasonable definition of fiscal conservatism has to include both (1) an element of spending restraint and (2) an interest in seeing that money is spent prudently.
“All Aboard!” The Pro-Business Democrat is Departing the Station
On the other side of the aisle from the Republican moderate can be found the moderate pro-business Democrat. For reasons I cannot begin to fathom, what distinguishes this type of Democrat as being in favor of “business” is support for the Southwest Light Rail project. Less moderate, “anti-business” Democrats also seem to support the project, so other than geography, I’m not sure where the distinction lies.
Moderate Success
In Minnesota, some quarters pine for the perfect moderate non-partisan politician. For example, former Republican Tom Horner ran as a third-party candidate in the 2010 governor’s race. As a public relations professional he was able to articulate a vision for Minnesota and he raised a respectable level of money for his statewide run. The quintessential fiscal conservative-social liberal, he was endorsed by the state's largest newspaper. In the end, he received exactly 12 percent of the vote.
So, if moderation in its purest form is a political dead end, where does that leave us? For my part, I’ve suggested a program of reform for Minnesota: insisting on accountability and value-for-money while reducing the size of government to a sustainable level. In any event, coming to some consensus regarding what constitutes a Republican moderate vs. a fiscal conservative vs. a pro-business Democrat would be a step in the right direction.
Update: You will want to read Aaron Grote's response to this post, in which he defends the fiscal conservative viewpoint.
Update: You will want to read Aaron Grote's response to this post, in which he defends the fiscal conservative viewpoint.
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